Exit Poll Vs Actual Result For Delhi Assembly Polls: Which Pollster Got The Predictions Right?

The BJP is all set to return to power with a bang in New Delhi. The saffron party is leading in 49 and reducing the ruling AAP to 21 seats, by the time this story went for publishing.

Eight out of 10 pollsters predicted the saffron party to win the polls. However, the accuracy of exit poll predictions, which had largely forecasted a BJP victory, varied significantly in terms of seat projections.

The majority of exit polls indicated a strong resurgence for the BJP, with AAP expected to finish second with around 30 seats. The Congress, which has struggled to regain its footing in Delhi politics, was projected to face a near-total wipeout, with most exit polls predicting zero to one seat for the party.

Only Mind Brink and WeePreside predicted the AAP to return to power for the third time in a row.

Here's a breakdown of the exit poll predictions:

Actual Results: BJP's Resurgence

The actual results, however, show the BJP leading in 47 seats, AAP trailing with 23 seats, and Congress failing to open its account. While most pollsters correctly predicted the BJP's victory, their seat projections for AAP and BJP varied significantly. For instance:

Chanakya Strategies and DV Research came closest to predicting the BJP's seat count, projecting 39-44 and 36-44 seats, respectively.

Peoples Pulse and Today's Chanakya were overly optimistic for the BJP, predicting 51-60 and 51 ± 6 seats, respectively.

On the other hand, Mind Brink and WeePreside underestimated the BJP's performance, projecting only 21-25 and 18-23 seats, respectively.

For AAP, most pollsters overestimated its performance, with projections ranging from 25-52 seats. The actual result of 23 seats fell at the lower end of these predictions. Meanwhile, the Congress' complete wipeout was accurately predicted by most pollsters, with only a few giving the party 1-2 seats.

Who Got It Right?

While the majority of exit polls correctly anticipated the BJP's resurgence and AAP's decline, their seat projections were far from precise. Chanakya Strategies and DV Research emerged as the most accurate, closely predicting the BJP's seat count.