Did Delhi Exit Polls Get It Right In 2020? What Were the Predictions

The intense campaign for the Delhi Assembly elections 2025 has officially ended, and the focus now shifts to voting day on February 5. The national capital is set for a high-stakes three-way contest between the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which is aiming for a third consecutive term, and its challengers-the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress.

Polling will conclude at 6 PM on February 5, and soon after, all eyes will be on the exit poll predictions, offering an early glimpse into voter sentiment ahead of the final results on February 8. Given the tough battle this time, these projections will be closely analysed.

Did Exit Polls Get It Right in 2020?

Exit polls in 2020 had almost unanimously predicted an AAP landslide, and they weren't far off the mark. Most agencies gave the party over 50 seats in the 70-member Assembly:

• India Today-Axis My India predicted the highest range for AAP, estimating 59-68 seats.
• Jan Ki Baat, News X-Neta, and India News Nation projected 55 seats for AAP.
• Times Now had a more conservative estimate, giving AAP 47 seats and BJP 23 seats.

The final 2020 election results closely aligned with these projections, with AAP securing 62 seats while BJP won just 8.

Interestingly, exit polls were much more accurate in 2020 compared to 2015, when AAP won a historic 67 out of 70 seats-far beyond what most pollsters had predicted.

A Three-Way Showdown

This election is crucial for AAP, which has ruled Delhi since 2015, and for Arvind Kejriwal, who hopes to retain power for a third term. On the other hand, BJP, fresh off major wins in Haryana and Maharashtra, is looking to expand its footprint in the capital. Meanwhile, Congress, once Delhi's dominant force, is eyeing a revival and is contesting as part of the INDIA alliance.

With 699 candidates competing across 70 constituencies, this election will shape Delhi's political landscape for the next five years.

Will AAP continue its dominance, or will BJP and Congress make a surprising comeback? The final verdict will be out on February 8.