Shiv Sena (UBT) Vs. BJP: Can Last-Minute Alliances Change The Game As Candidate Lists Are Finalised?

As the clock ticks down to the announcement of candidate lists for the upcoming assembly elections, the three constituents in the Mahayuti alliance are grappling with tough decisions, according to the Hindustan Times (HT) report. The Shiv Sena (UBT) appears to be capitalising on the situation, benefiting from the discontent among candidates from rival parties.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is set to drop several of its 48 MLAs, particularly those whose constituencies performed poorly in the recent Lok Sabha elections. In contrast, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and the Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) find themselves in a tight spot. They cannot afford to ignore the BJP's strategy-of the 41 sitting MLAs in the Shinde-led Sena, 19 had underperformed in their constituencies, while 24 out of 42 NCP MLAs faced similar issues.

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Among the 185 sitting MLAs from the Mahayuti alliance, only 94 performed well in their respective constituencies. The BJP is taking these results seriously after reviewing the performance of its 103 MLAs in the Lok Sabha elections. Notable leaders such as Sudhir Mungantiwar, Atul Save, and Suresh Khade, along with former ministers and spokesperson Ram Kadam, are on the chopping block.

In contrast, the Shiv Sena and NCP's sitting MLAs seem secure. The Sena's and NCP's MLAs have remained loyal to their leaders despite party splits in June 2022 and July 2023. A leader from the Shinde-led Sena has given his remarks to HT, "Denying them tickets would send the wrong message. These MLAs are established leaders in their areas." He also warned that dropping them could lead to rebellion within the ranks.

Additionally, many MLAs who stayed with Shinde and Pawar have been rewarded with substantial funds for their constituencies, bolstering their political standing locally. Some argue that poor performances in the Lok Sabha elections could be attributed to candidates from other alliance parties running in those areas. Krishna Hegde, spokesperson for the Shinde-led Sena, stated in HT, "The reasons for performance in a Lok Sabha election differ from those in assembly polls. I don't think it will affect their candidacy."

Ajit Pawar's NCP faces a more significant challenge in finalising its candidate list. Many MLAs who supported him during the party split are considering returning to the Sharad Pawar-led NCP. An NCP leader noted, "Most of his sitting MLAs are strong leaders in their constituencies and can win independently." The party has already prepared a list of over 40 candidates, primarily consisting of sitting MLAs.

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On the flip side, the Shiv Sena (UBT) has imposed a 'no entry' policy for MLAs who switched allegiance to Shinde's Sena in 2022. Instead, they are strategically recruiting leaders from other parties, especially the ruling BJP and NCP, in constituencies lacking strong local candidates. On Friday, two BJP leaders, Rajan Teli and Suresh Bankar, alongside two NCP leaders, Deepak Salunkhe and Moreshwar Bhondve, joined the Sena (UBT) in a public event with party chief Uddhav Thackeray.

The Sena (UBT)'s tactical moves could yield positive results as they require strong local leaders for various constituencies, especially in Western Maharashtra, to counter their rebel MLAs. With many candidates vying for positions and several aspiring leaders dissatisfied with being denied tickets, Uddhav Thackeray is also in discussions with leaders like Ganesh Naik from Navi Mumbai and former BJP MP Pratap Patil-Chikhalikar from Nanded.

As the deadline approaches, the political landscape remains tense, with party loyalty and strategic positioning becoming crucial for the upcoming elections.