Will the US Join a China–Taiwan War? Growing Tensions Raise Global Alarm

China’s large-scale live-fire drills around Taiwan are unfolding as the United States keeps two aircraft carriers and an amphibious assault ship active across the Western Pacific, underlining rising military tension and the competing efforts to shape the regional security picture.

Beijing’s exercises, named "Justice Mission 2025", run for two days and simulate a blockade of Taiwan’s main ports, while Washington’s carrier strike and expeditionary groups operate in nearby waters including the Philippine Sea, South China Sea, and East China Sea.

China Taiwan military drills and PLA blockade simulation

China’s People’s Liberation Army has launched missiles, flown dozens of fighter jets, and deployed warships around Taiwan, with drills focused on strikes against maritime targets and the isolation of the island. State broadcaster CCTV said a major theme is a "blockade" of key ports such as Keelung in the north and Kaohsiung in the south.

Chinese authorities released a map marking five large exercise zones around Taiwan, some extending to within 12 nautical miles of the coast, and declared the drills would end at 6:00 pm (1000 GMT) on Tuesday, though Taiwan said the declared areas have already disrupted shipping and aviation routes.

China Taiwan military drills impact on flights and shipping

Taiwan’s Civil Aviation Administration reported the cancellation of dozens of flights to offshore Kinmen and Matsu islands on Tuesday, affecting around 6,000 passengers, while more than 850 international services were expected to be "affected" through diversions or delays as airlines adjusted routes around China’s live-fire zones.

Taiwan’s defence ministry said that in the 24 hours to 6:00 am on Tuesday, radar and patrols tracked 130 Chinese aircraft near the island, 14 navy vessels, and eight other government ships, while Taiwan’s coast guard deployed 14 ships that were "employing a one-on-one shadowing approach to forcefully deter the vessels".

China Taiwan military drills: statements from Beijing and Taipei

The PLA’s Eastern Theater Command stated that its forces had "conducted long-range live fire drills in the waters to the north of the Taiwan Island and achieved desired effects", describing the activities as tests of offensive capabilities and pressure tools against what Beijing calls separatist forces.

In another statement, the command said the exercises around the north and south of Taiwan "tested capabilities of sea-air coordination and integrated blockade and control", while a military spokesperson, Shi Yi, said they were "a stern warning against 'Taiwan Independence' separatist forces, and… a legitimate and necessary action to safeguard China's sovereignty and national unity".

China Taiwan military drills and PLA operational details

China announced that destroyers, frigates, fighters, and bombers were deployed "to conduct drills on subjects of identification and verification, warning and expulsion, simulated strikes, assault on maritime targets, as well as anti-air and anti-submarine operations", covering a wide range of combat scenarios linked to a possible attempt to encircle Taiwan.

During the firings near Pingtan, at least 10 rockets were seen lifting off in quick succession, sending loud booms across the area as they streaked overhead, with tourists rushing to wooden barricades by the sea to record videos and photographs of the ascending projectiles.

China Taiwan military drills criticised by Taiwan and allies

Taipei’s defence ministry called the Communist Party’s drills "highly provocative and reckless", saying they "seriously undermine regional peace and stability", echoing growing concern in nearby capitals about the effect of frequent war games around crucial sea lanes and air corridors.

Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te wrote on Facebook that the territory would not be "escalating the conflict" or looking to provoke new disputes, while earlier, officials in Taipei condemned the exercises as a response to recent arms packages from the United States and comments from Japan’s leadership about possible military support.

China Taiwan military drills, US arms sales and Japan’s stance

The latest show of Chinese force follows new American arms deals for Taipei, with Washington described as Taiwan’s main security partner, and statements from Japan’s prime minister that any move to use force against Taiwan might justify a military response by Tokyo, adding another layer to the regional security debate.

China’s top diplomat Wang Yi warned in a Beijing speech that China would "forcefully counter" large-scale United States weapons sales to Taiwan and argued that any attempt to slow or obstruct China’s plans for unification with the island "will inevitably end in failure", signalling a hard diplomatic line alongside the live-fire activity.

China Taiwan military drills and US carrier USS Abraham Lincoln

While China drills near Taiwan, the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, flagship of its Carrier Strike Group, has moved into the South China Sea for what the United States describes as routine operations after sailing from San Diego in late November and briefly stopping at Naval Base Guam on 11 December.

Recent U.S. Navy photographs show F-35C Lightning II stealth fighters from Marine Fighter Attack Squadron 314 taking off and landing on the USS Abraham Lincoln and performing in-flight refuelling with replenishment ships, highlighting the strike group’s ability to sustain long-duration air operations across the Western Pacific.

China Taiwan military drills and USS Tripoli deployment

The America-class amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli, which can launch and recover F-35B short takeoff and vertical landing jets and is embarked with elements of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, carried out routine operations in the South China Sea earlier in December before shifting further north.

As of 22 December 2025, fleet trackers placed USS Tripoli and ships from its Expeditionary Strike Group, including guided-missile cruiser USS Robert Smalls and destroyer USS Rafael Peralta, in the East China Sea, though by 29 December Tripoli had returned to its homeport at Sasebo, Japan, for the holiday period and additional training.

China Taiwan military drills alongside US carrier presence in Indo-Pacific

In parallel, the aircraft carrier USS George Washington, homeported at Yokosuka in Japan and described as the United States Navy’s only permanently based carrier in the region, remained moored in Yokosuka after arriving earlier in the month, adding another major capital ship to the wider Western Pacific posture.

These deployments, combining F-35C operations from USS Abraham Lincoln, F-35B capability from USS Tripoli, and the in-port presence of USS George Washington, are seen by analysts as signalling sustained United States commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific at the same time that China’s "highly provocative and reckless" drills seek to pressure Taiwan and test the reactions of Taipei and its partners.