What Is the 28-Point US Plan That Seeks a ‘Frozen’ Russia-Ukraine Conflict?

A leaked document reveals a 28-point peace plan drafted by US officials, aiming to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This proposal offers a novel approach, focusing on a "frozen" conflict model and economic incentives, rather than reinstating Ukraine's 1991 borders. The plan's details suggest a significant shift from the West's earlier policies concerning the conflict.

The proposal begins by affirming Ukraine's sovereignty, but with conditions. A comprehensive non-aggression pact between Russia, Ukraine, and Europe is necessary to clear past ambiguities. A controversial aspect is the territorial settlement, where Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk would be recognised as Russian territory. The conflict in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia would remain static, endorsing Russia's current control.

Territorial Concessions and Sovereignty

As part of the deal, Ukrainian forces must withdraw from parts of the Donetsk Oblast, creating a neutral, demilitarised buffer zone. This area would be internationally recognised as Russian territory, though Russian forces would be prohibited from entering. If agreed upon, both countries would commit to not altering borders by force.

Another major element is the proposed security architecture. Russia must refrain from invading neighbouring countries, while NATO pledges not to expand further. Ukraine's permanent neutrality is a key requirement, with constitutional changes preventing NATO membership. NATO must also include provisions against Ukraine's future admission.

New Security Architecture

The Ukrainian Armed Forces would be limited to 600,000 personnel, a significant decrease from their current size. European fighter jets would be stationed in Poland to bolster deterrence. The US would offer a security guarantee to Ukraine, receiving compensation for this commitment. Sanctions and deal benefits would be revoked if Russia invades Ukraine.

The economic section of the plan promises Ukraine significant financial incentives. Ukraine would be eligible for EU membership, receiving preferential access to the European market. A vast reconstruction package includes a Ukraine Development Fund, focusing on technology and AI. The US would lead efforts to modernise Ukraine's gas infrastructure.

Economic Integration and Reconstruction

Russia would see a phased reintegration into the global economy, with sanctions lifted gradually. The US commits to long-term economic cooperation with Russia in various sectors, including energy and rare earth metal extraction. Russia would be invited back to the G8 as a diplomatic gesture.

Frozen Russian assets play a vital role in the reconstruction efforts. A $100 billion investment would be directed toward rebuilding Ukraine, with profits shared between the US and Europe. Remaining frozen funds would be used to create a joint US-Russian investment vehicle, fostering stronger ties and reducing conflict incentives.

Governance, Culture, and Final Amnesty

The final points address conflict resolution and enforcement mechanisms. The US and Russia would extend treaties on nuclear non-proliferation. Ukraine would remain non-nuclear, and Russia would legislate non-aggression policies towards Europe and Ukraine. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant would be relaunched under IAEA supervision.

On social and cultural matters, both countries commit to educational programs promoting understanding and tolerance. Ukraine would adopt EU rules on religious tolerance and linguistic minority protection. Both sides would abolish discriminatory media and education measures, rejecting all Nazi ideology and activities.

A humanitarian committee would be established to address unresolved issues, ensuring prisoner exchanges and family reunifications. Russia agrees not to hinder Ukraine's commercial use of the Dnieper River, with agreements for grain transport across the Black Sea. Ukraine would hold elections within 100 days of the agreement, granting amnesty to all conflict parties.

The plan's implementation would be monitored by a Peace Council, with President Trump at the helm. Sanctions would be imposed for violations, and a ceasefire would take effect immediately after both sides retreat to agreed points.

Ukrainian and European Response

Following the proposal, President Zelenskyy discussed it with the UK, France, and Germany. Zelenskyy confirmed that any response would be coordinated with these European nations. While the EU stated that Russia has "no right" to concessions, it emphasised that Ukraine should decide the terms, leaving Kyiv in a difficult position.

The US has set a deadline for Thursday, 27 November, increasing pressure on Ukraine to respond. Despite the plan's challenges, Ukraine may attempt to negotiate, though options are limited by Russia's ambitions. The proposal's implications for Ukraine are significant, with US threats to stop military and intelligence support adding to the pressure.