US Intelligence Warns of Potential Russian Use of New Lethal Missile Against Ukraine in Coming Days

A recent US intelligence report suggests Russia might soon deploy its new intermediate-range ballistic missile, the Oreshnik, against Ukraine. This missile was first used last month and is perceived more as a tool of intimidation than a decisive weapon in the ongoing conflict. The nearly three-year war continues as both sides seek an advantage, with President-elect Donald Trump promising to end it.

The US has pledged nearly USD 1 billion in new security aid to Ukraine, while other Western allies propose winter negotiations to resolve the conflict. Two US officials, speaking anonymously, indicated that preparations for another missile launch could occur by the end of the month or even sooner. The Russian Defence Ministry has hinted at retaliation after Ukraine used US-made ATACMS missiles to attack a military base in Taganrog, Rostov region.

Potential Retaliation and Strategic Moves

The Russian Defence Ministry reported that two missiles were intercepted by air defences, while four were diverted using electronic warfare. "This attack with Western long-range weapons will not be left unanswered and relevant measures will be taken," stated the ministry. This isn't the first time US officials have warned of potential Russian actions, partly as a diplomatic strategy to influence Moscow's decisions.

Before Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the US openly discussed intelligence about Russia's troop movements towards Kyiv. Later, they revealed Moscow's plans for a "false-flag operation" in eastern Ukraine to justify an invasion. According to US officials, Russia possesses only a few Oreshnik missiles, which carry smaller warheads compared to other missiles regularly launched at Ukraine.

Oreshnik Missile Capabilities

The Oreshnik was first deployed on November 21 against Dnipro, Ukraine. Surveillance footage captured massive fireballs hitting the ground at high speed during this initial combat use. Following the attack on the military facility, Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared on national TV to highlight the new missile's capabilities.

Putin warned that future uses could target NATO allies supporting Ukraine with longer-range missiles. The attack occurred shortly after Putin revised Russia's nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for nuclear weapon use. This doctrine allows for a nuclear response even to conventional attacks on Russia by nations backed by nuclear powers.

US and Russian Military Strategies

The strike also followed President Joe Biden's decision to ease restrictions on Ukraine's use of American-made long-range weapons against Russia. Additionally, the US announced it would provide Ukraine with antipersonnel mines to slow Russian advances. "We believe that we have the right to use our weapons against military facilities of the countries that allow to use their weapons against our facilities," Putin stated at the time.

Putin also cautioned that the new missile might target other Ukrainian sites, including Kyiv's government district. Last month, he mentioned that Russia's General Staff was selecting potential targets such as military facilities and decision-making centres in Kyiv. He declared that civilians and nationals from friendly countries should leave dangerous zones before strikes with systems like Oreshnik occur.

International Reactions and Future Implications

Putin praised Oreshnik's capabilities, claiming its multiple warheads travel at Mach 10 and are immune to interception. He suggested that using several in one conventional strike could rival a nuclear attack's devastation. On Tuesday, Putin argued that having enough advanced weapons makes nuclear weapons almost unnecessary.

The Pentagon described Oreshnik as an experimental intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) based on Russia's RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). It lacks a hypersonic glide vehicle for most of its launch and re-entry phases. Intermediate-range missiles can travel between 500 and 5,500 kilometres (310 to 3,400 miles), previously banned under a Soviet-era treaty abandoned by Washington and Moscow in 2019.

The conflict has intensified as both Russia and Ukraine strive for an upper hand in potential negotiations. Trump's upcoming inauguration raises questions about continued US support for Kyiv. Recently, Trump urged both nations to agree on a ceasefire and suggested reduced US military aid for Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration announced a USD 988 million long-term aid package last weekend. This funding adds to an earlier USD 725 million in military assistance, including counter-drone systems and HIMARS munitions from Pentagon stockpiles for rapid deployment to front lines. Since February 2022, the US has provided over USD 62 billion in military aid to Ukraine.