US Intelligence Warns Putin Against Nuclear Weapons Amid Ukraine Conflict, Reveals Bob Woodward's Book

The United States had intelligence suggesting that President Vladimir Putin was contemplating the use of nuclear weapons during the Ukraine conflict, according to journalist Bob Woodward's new book, "War." The intelligence indicated a 50% likelihood of Putin deploying tactical nuclear weapons if Ukrainian forces encircled 30,000 Russian troops in Kherson. This assessment emerged months after Ukrainian forces reclaimed Kharkiv and were advancing towards Kherson.

US Concerns Over Nuclear Threats

In late September 2022, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan viewed this intelligence with concern. The Biden administration's alarm grew as the probability of Russia using nuclear weapons increased from 5% to 50%. President Joe Biden instructed Sullivan to communicate with Russian officials, conveying potential US responses in a firm yet measured manner. Biden also directly warned Putin about the severe repercussions of using nuclear weapons.

The book, obtained early by The Associated Press, reveals insights into US assessments of Russia's nuclear intentions. While the Biden administration's worries about Russia's potential use of tactical nuclear weapons weren't secret, officials consistently cautioned Putin against such actions. Putin and Kremlin officials have often threatened the West with Russia's nuclear capabilities.

International Reactions and Diplomatic Efforts

In a recent warning, Putin stated that any conventional attack on Russia supported by a nuclear power would be seen as a joint assault. This statement aimed to deter Western nations from enabling Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory with long-range weapons. Despite Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's requests for permission to target deeper inside Russia, Biden has refrained from allowing it due to fears of escalating the conflict.

Woodward's book also describes a tense exchange between US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin and Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu in October 2022. Austin confronted Shoigu about Russia's consideration of using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. He emphasized that any use of nuclear weapons would be considered a significant global event and warned that restrictions on certain weapons provided to Ukraine might be reconsidered.

Global Influence and Strategic Discussions

Austin highlighted that countries like China, India, Turkiye, and Israel would isolate Russia if it resorted to nuclear weapons. Shoigu responded by expressing his displeasure at being threatened. Austin replied, asserting his position as leader of a powerful military without making threats. The Pentagon noted a call between Austin and Shoigu on October 21, 2022, emphasizing the importance of communication amid the ongoing war.

US intelligence viewed China as having significant influence over Russia. Consequently, Biden contacted Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss deterrence measures. According to Woodward, Xi agreed to caution Putin against using nuclear weapons. In November 2022, Biden and Xi met and concurred that "a nuclear war should never be fought," opposing any use or threat of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

Reflections on Past US-Russia Relations

Woodward's book also delves into Biden's criticism of former President Barack Obama's handling of Russia's annexation of Crimea and parts of Donbas in 2014 when Biden was vice president. Biden expressed frustration over what he perceived as inadequate action against Putin's aggression in Ukraine at that time. He believed that allowing Putin to act unchecked in 2014 was a mistake.

White House spokeswoman Emilie Simons stated that while many books are written about various administrations, they won't comment on every anecdote from different reports.