US Troops to Conclude Military Mission and Depart Longstanding Bases in Iraq Under New Agreement

The United States has reached an agreement with Iraq to conclude the military mission of the American-led coalition fighting the Islamic State by next year. However, the Biden administration has not disclosed how many of the 2,500 US troops currently in Iraq will remain or if this signifies a complete withdrawal. "I think it's fair to say that, you know, our footprint is going to be changing within the country," Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh stated without further details.

The announcement comes amid rising tensions in the Middle East, with conflicts involving Israel and Iranian-backed groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. US bases have faced frequent attacks from Iran-backed militias, especially after the Israel-Hamas conflict last year. Iraqi officials have long called for a reduction of coalition forces, and discussions to decrease the US presence have been ongoing for months.

Transition Phases and Troop Movements

US officials revealed that a two-phase transition began this month. The first phase, ending in September 2025, will see the coalition mission against ISIS conclude and forces leaving some bases. After November's election, American troops will start departing from Ain al-Asad airbase and Baghdad International Airport. These forces will relocate to Hareer base in Erbil, within Iraq's Kurdistan region.

In the second phase, the US will continue operations in Iraq through 2026 to support counter-ISIS efforts in Syria. This was confirmed by senior Biden administration and defence officials who spoke anonymously. Eventually, the US military mission aims to evolve into a bilateral security relationship, though specifics about troop numbers remain unclear.

Political Implications and Historical Context

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani acknowledged progress in resolving international coalition issues against ISIS. He praised Iraqi security forces for defeating ISIS remnants. The presence of US troops remains politically sensitive for Sudani's government, which faces growing Iranian influence. Iraq has historically struggled to balance relations with both the US and Iran.

Qais Khazali, leader of Asaib Ahl al-Haq—a Shia militia backed by Iran—expressed gratitude for efforts to expel coalition forces. This agreement marks the third formal transition of US military roles in Iraq over two decades. The US initially invaded Iraq in 2003 under false claims of weapons of mass destruction, leading to a peak deployment of over 170,000 troops during counterinsurgency operations in 2007.

The Obama administration negotiated a drawdown, with combat troops leaving by December 2011 but maintaining a small presence for security assistance. In 2014, ISIS's rise prompted a return of US forces at Iraq's request to rebuild police and military units. Coalition operations ended in 2021 after ISIS lost its territory, but around 2,500 US troops remained for training and counter-ISIS missions.

US forces have also served as a deterrent against Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria. Their presence complicates Iran's ability to transport weapons through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon for use by proxies like Hezbollah against Israel.