US Presidential Race To See Kamala Harris Vs Donald Trump? Here's What Polls Say

Kamala Harris, the Vice President of US, is seen as a natural successor to President Joe Biden if he decides to step aside for the 2024 election.

Harris' growing support from Democratic Party heavyweights. Her tenure has had a rocky start with staff turnover and challenging policy portfolios, but her recent efforts on key issues have changed perceptions within the party.

Public Opinion and Polls

Recent polls indicate that Harris could pose a tough challenge to Donald Trump, reported Reuters.

• A CNN poll released on July 2 found Trump leading Biden by six percentage points, 49% to 43%, while Harris trailed Trump by a narrower margin, 47% to 45%, within the margin of error.
• The poll also found that independents favor Harris over Trump, 43% to 40%, and moderate voters prefer her 51% to 39%.
• A Reuters/Ipsos poll after a recent debate found Harris and Trump nearly tied, with 42% supporting her and 43% backing him.
• Internal polling from the Biden campaign showed Harris with similar odds as Biden of beating Trump, with 45% of voters supporting her versus 48% for Trump.

Support from Influential Democrats

Several key Democratic figures have signaled support for Harris:

• US Representative Jim Clyburn, crucial to Biden's 2020 win.
• Rep. Gregory Meeks, a senior member of the Congressional Black Caucus.
• Summer Lee, a House Democrat from Pennsylvania.
• House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has privately indicated the same to lawmakers.

Republican Concerns

Harris is taken seriously by Republican donors, with some preferring Trump face Biden instead of Harris.

Pauline Lee, a Trump fundraiser, stated, "I would prefer Biden to stay in place" rather than be replaced by Harris, suggesting Biden had proven "incompetent."

Sonu Varghese, a global macro strategist at Carson Group, said, "Having VP Harris likely improves Democrats' odds of taking the White House."

Challenges and Opportunities

Harris' approval ratings are mixed, with Five Thirty Eight reporting 37.1% approval and 49.6% disapproval. Comparatively, Biden has 36.9% approval and 57.1% disapproval, while Trump has 38.6% approval and 53.6% disapproval.

Since the Supreme Court repealed the constitutional right to abortion in 2022, Harris has become the Biden administration's leading voice on reproductive rights, an issue Democrats hope will mobilize voters in 2024.

Tim Ryan, a former Democratic Congressman from Ohio, noted Harris could energise key Democratic-leaning groups, including Black voters, young voters, and those dissatisfied with Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Potential Liabilities

Harris may face challenges in attracting moderate Democrats and independents. Dmitri Mehlhorn, an adviser to LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman, noted, "Her greatest weakness is that her public brand has been associated with the far-left wing of the Democratic Party...and the left wing of the Democratic party cannot win a national election."

Fundraising could also be a challenge. As a presidential candidate ahead of the 2020 election, Harris lagged behind Biden in raising money. However, Biden's campaign raised a record $48 million in the 24 hours after naming Harris as his running mate in 2020.

Republican Attacks

Republican attacks on Harris are intensifying as she is considered a possible Biden replacement. Criticisms include accusations of being untested and unqualified, and attacks on her demeanor.

Kelly Dittmar, a political science professor at Rutgers University, said, "Unfortunately, the reliance on both racist and sexist attacks and tropes against women running for office is historically common and persists to this day."

Harris's prosecutorial background could be an asset in a debate against Trump.

Mehlhorn stated, "She is incredibly focused and forceful and smart, and if she prosecutes the case against the criminality of Donald Trump, she will rip him apart."