UK Elections 2024: What Will Be The Potential Impact On India-UK Bilateral Relations?

The UK's 2024 general election is expected to have minimal impact on India-UK relations. However, it might change the timeline for finalising the anticipated India-UK Free Trade Agreement. Both the Conservative and Labour parties aim to strengthen bilateral ties, with defence and security cooperation set to continue growing.

The 2024 UK general election results, expected by the morning of July 5 (IST), are anticipated to have minimal impact on India-UK relations.

Both the Conservative Party, led by Rishi Sunak, and the Labour Party, led by Keir Rodney Starmer, have shown support for strengthening ties with India.

However, the snap poll has reduced the likelihood of the much-anticipated India-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA) being finalised by Sunak's current Conservative government. The Labour Party, which is widely expected to form the next government, has pledged to complete the FTA but has not provided a clear timeline.

Impact on India-UK FTA Negotiations

The snap election has affected the chances of finalising the India-UK FTA under Rishi Sunak's leadership. The negotiations began in January 2022 with an initial goal to complete the deal by Diwali 2022. Rahul Roy-Chaudhury from the International Institute for Strategic Studies noted that the election has "skewered any prospect of finalising" the FTA with a Conservative government.

Labour remains committed to completing the FTA but will need time to review its details once in office. Key issues include India's demand for greater access for its skilled professionals in the UK and the UK's push for lower import duties on goods like Scotch whisky and electric vehicles.

Immigration is another contentious issue. Both major parties agree on restricting it, which could complicate India's demand for temporary visas for its service sector workforce. Labour has criticised Conservatives for "over-promising and under-delivering" on the FTA and stated it is "ready to go" on finalising it if elected.

Defence and Security Cooperation

The defence and security partnership between India and the UK is expected to continue growing. This follows recent momentum from initiatives like the 2+2 mechanism and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh's visit in early 2024—the first such visit in 22 years.

The evolving strategic landscape of the Indo-Pacific region has seen increased India-UK engagement. The Sunak-led government pivoted towards partners like India to support a rules-based order, leading to enhanced maritime presence through joint military exercises and collaboration in areas like counterterrorism and humanitarian assistance.

Labour plans to work with India to promote a "free and open Indo-Pacific" based on a rules-based order. Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy mentioned that cooperation areas between India and the UK are limitless, especially in cybersecurity.

Political Experts' Views

Political experts believe that if Labour comes to power—widely expected—Starmer as PM will prioritise UK-India economic partnership in the Indo-Pacific. The FTA would serve as a foundation for expanding cooperation in climate, technology, and supply chains.

While Labour is likely to maintain support for Ukraine against Russia, there could be shifts in its approach to other conflicts like Israel-Palestine. Lammy stated that Labour plans to stop arms sales to Israel if elected.

The bilateral relationship between India and the UK is poised for continuity regardless of who wins. Both parties have expressed their commitment to deepening cooperation across various sectors including technology, climate change, and education.