Spain Faces Uncertain Political Future After Election Deadlock

Spain appears headed for an uncertain political future on Monday as the right and left failed to secure a clear majority.

The conservative Popular Party (PP) has won the most seats (136), but have failed to gain an outright majority in parliament. The absolute majority needed to form a government is 176 seats.

Pre-election polls had predicted a bigger victory for the Popular Party and the possibility for it to form a coalition with the far-right Vox party. Such a coalition would have returned a far-right force to the Spanish government for the first time since the country transitioned to democracy in the late 1970s following the nearly 40-year rule of dictator Francisco Franco.

Sanchez was trying to win a third consecutive national election since taking power in 2018. The Socialists and the junior member of its coalition government took a beating from the conservative party and the far-right Vox party in regional and local elections in May, prompting Sanchez to call Sunday's early election.

Most polling during the campaign forecast that the national vote would go the same way but require the Popular Party to rely on support from Vox to form a government, with PP candidate Alberto Nunez Feijoo at the helm.

A PP-Vox government would have meant another EU member has moved firmly to the right, a trend seen recently in Sweden, Finland and Italy. Countries such as Germany and France are concerned by what such a shift would portend for EU immigration and climate policies.

Spain's two main leftist parties are pro-EU participation. On the right, the PP is also in favour of the EU. Vox, headed by Santiago Abascal, is opposed to EU interference in Spain's affairs.

The election comes as Spain holds the EU's rotating presidency. Sanchez had hoped to use the six-month term to showcase the advances his government had made. An election defeat for Sanchez could see the PP taking over the EU presidency reins.

The election was taking place at the height of summer, with millions of voters likely to be vacationing away from their regular polling places. However, postal voting requests soared before Sunday.

With no party expected to garner an absolute majority, the choice is basically between another leftist coalition and a partnership of the right and the far right.

Sanchez's government has steered Spain through the COVID-19 pandemic and dealt with an inflation-driven economic downturn made worse by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

But his dependency on fringe parties to keep his minority coalition afloat, including the separatist forces from Catalonia and the Basque Country, and his passing of a slew of liberal-minded laws may cost him his job.