Russian Military Presence in Syria: Current Status and Future Uncertainty Amid Ongoing Conflict

A convoy of Russian military vehicles was seen heading towards Tartous in Syria on Monday, with soldiers standing guard. Aircraft frequently took off and landed at Russia's Hmeimim air base in Latakia, where smoke was visible rising from within the base. The source of the smoke remains unclear.

In Hmeimim, a town known for its orange groves, many shops display signs in Russian, highlighting the significant Russian military presence. However, the future of this presence is uncertain following the fall of former Syrian President Bashar Assad.

Russian Military Presence and Withdrawal

Russia's intervention had once shifted the balance in Syria's civil war in favour of Assad. In 2017, Assad's government agreed to a 49-year lease with Russia for both Hmeimim air base and Tartous naval base. However, recent opposition advances have threatened Assad's rule again.

Last month, opposition forces launched an unexpected offensive in northwest Syria. Moscow largely remained uninvolved but has provided asylum to Assad and his family. Russian forces have begun withdrawing from some areas, including southern Syria and bases in Ain Issa and Tel Al-Samn.

Assad's Departure and New Developments

Assad made his first public statement since his ouster on Monday. He revealed he left Damascus for Hmeimim air base on December 8 after insurgents stormed the capital. He stated he had no plans to flee Syria but was evacuated to Russia after a drone attack on the base.

Since Assad's departure, there have been no clashes between Russian troops and former insurgents now acting as Syria's de facto security forces. Despite past animosities due to frequent Russian bombardments, these fighters are now maintaining order.

Future Relations with New Syrian Authorities

Even as Putin granted asylum to Assad, Moscow has reached out to new Syrian authorities to secure its bases and extend its forces' stay. The Syrian Embassy in Moscow now flies the three-starred flag of the revolution instead of the old government's two-starred flag.

Obeida Arnaout, spokesman for the new transitional government's political department, urged Russia to reconsider its presence in Syria. He suggested that Russia could engage with the new administration to demonstrate goodwill towards the Syrian people.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed discussions with new authorities are ongoing. "We are in contact with representatives of the forces currently controlling the situation," Peskov stated. The future of Russia's presence will be determined through dialogue.

A fighter guarding a civilian airport near Hmeimim expressed hope that "The Russians are preparing to withdraw from Syria, God willing." He identified himself only as Abu Saif due to restrictions on speaking publicly.