Russia, US Hold 83% of World's Usable Nuclear Warheads; What SIPRI Report Means for India

Russia and the United States continue to dominate the world's nuclear arsenals, collectively possessing around 83 per cent of the world's usable nuclear warheads, according to the latest assessment by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

The SIPRI Yearbook 2026 estimates that the global inventory stands at approximately 12,187 nuclear warheads, of which around 9,745 remain in military stockpiles for potential use. Russia is estimated to possess around 5,450 warheads, while the United States maintains a stockpile of roughly 5,200 warheads.

A New Phase in the Nuclear Age

The report warns that the post-Cold War trend of declining nuclear arsenals may be coming to an end. For decades, the dismantling of retired warheads by Russia and the United States outpaced the deployment of new weapons. However, that trend is now showing signs of reversal as major nuclear powers continue modernization programmes and invest in new delivery systems.

Both Russia and the United States are upgrading their strategic forces, despite facing separate challenges. Russia's modernization programme has encountered setbacks, including reported difficulties with its Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile programme. The United States, meanwhile, is dealing with rising costs and delays linked to its extensive nuclear modernization efforts.

Yet despite these hurdles, neither country is reducing its reliance on nuclear deterrence.

Why This Matters to India

For India, the SIPRI findings are a reminder that the global nuclear order remains heavily influenced by the policies and military decisions of Russia and the United States.

At the same time, several nuclear-armed nations are modernising their arsenals and introducing new weapon systems. SIPRI notes that the pace of dismantling retired warheads is slowing while investments in nuclear capabilities continue across multiple countries. These developments are likely to be closely watched in New Delhi, where strategic planning must account for both regional security concerns and broader changes in international security.

India is also continuing to modernise its own nuclear deterrent. According to SIPRI, the country slightly expanded its arsenal in 2025 and continued developing new delivery systems. Pakistan, too, continued work on new delivery systems and accumulated fissile material during the year.

The End of Arms Control Certainty

Another concern flagged by SIPRI report is the weakening of global arms-control mechanisms. The expiration of key agreements and the lack of progress in international disarmament efforts have increased uncertainty about future nuclear force levels.

For countries such as India, which operate outside traditional US-Russia arms-control frameworks, these developments could influence long-term strategic planning. A world with fewer transparency measures and fewer limits on nuclear deployments may become increasingly unpredictable.

More Than a Numbers Game

Experts argue that the future of nuclear competition will not be determined solely by warhead numbers. Advances in missile technology, hypersonic weapons, missile-defence systems, artificial intelligence and submarine-based deterrence are becoming equally important factors.

While Russia and the United States continue to hold a commanding lead in overall warhead counts, the broader nuclear landscape is becoming more crowded and technologically complex.

For India, the challenge is no longer simply keeping pace with developments in its immediate neighbourhood. It is understanding how a changing global nuclear order-still dominated by Moscow and Washington but increasingly influenced by Beijing-could shape the country's security environment in the decades ahead.

Global Nuclear Inventory — January 2026