Proxy Warfare: The Shift In Dynamics Between Iran And Israel | What Happens Now

Following a successful defence by Israel, with US support, against an Iranian missile attack last Saturday using super-efficient ballistic missile defence (BMD), the ongoing conflict between these two eternal rivals will now be enacted through non-state actors rather than direct retaliation from Tel Aviv, given there is no strategic objective for horizontal escalation for either side.

The Iranian attack, which had been visible at least two days before the actual firing of ballistic missiles and drones, was in response to the Israeli attack on its Damascus consulate annexe, resulting in the deaths of 16 people, including one senior Quds force commander, as reported by Hindustan Times.

Photo Credit: PTI

The visible movement of Iranian missiles and drones provided enough notice to the US, Israel, and Jordan to prepare the BMD against the impending strike.

Shift In Dynamics Between Iran And Israel: Why They Are Fighting?

The assessment of how many Iranian ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, or Shahed 136 drones reached Israel is crucial in evaluating the impact of recent hostilities. Notably, given the speed of Iranian drones or loitering ammunition-approximately 165 kilometres per hour-it would take a minimum of nine hours for these devices to reach Israel, as reported by Hindustan Times.

However, this extended duration provides ample opportunity for interception before reaching their target. Additionally, the extent to which ballistic missiles successfully reached Israel remains a critical point of analysis in assessing the effectiveness of defensive measures employed during the conflict.

The fact is that a few ballistic missiles reached Israel but were intercepted by state-of-the-art technology through Iron Dome, Patriot, and David's Sling BMDs. While Israel will choose its place and time to retaliate to Iranian provocation, Tehran has nothing more than ballistic missiles to fire at Tel Aviv, as reported.

It does not have an Air Force or even a Navy to challenge the military superiority of Israel, with all the planes being at least 30 years old and no spare parts available. So, the best option for the Tehran regime after it has satisfied its domestic audiences through the April 13 retaliation is to use proxies like Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and Kaitab Hezbollah to attack Israel.

The Iranian proxies in Lebanon face the challenge of confronting Israel and risking potential annihilation, which could result in a loss of power in Beirut.

Israel, on the other hand, has multiple platforms to deliver force to Tehran as the latter has no missile defence worth its name. Destruction can be delivered to Tehran through missiles, drones, and bomber jets without any credible counter in Iranian airspace.

But this will lead to horizontal conflagration in the Middle East, something which the US or its allies in the Middle East will not allow. Simply put, both have scored points before their domestic audiences, and the political objectives have been satisfied, as per the Hindustan Times report.

While the Israel war on Gaza is about Hamas releasing hostages kidnapped by terrorists on October 7, a full-fledged Israel-Iran war will be an upheaval in West Asia that the world cannot afford. Hence, shortly, Iran will continue to use proxies to keep the Middle East region unstable with Israel countering them with force through top-end military technology and firepower. But the first round of the Israel-Iran war seems over.