Pakistan’s Ammunition Crisis Exposes Alarming Military Weakness

Pakistan's military is facing a critical shortfall in ammunition supplies, leaving it able to sustain only four days of high-intensity combat-a situation attributed to extensive arms exports to Ukraine and Israel that have dangerously eroded its defence reserves. This alarming deficiency has triggered widespread concerns about the country's military preparedness and long-term security.

Recent revelations indicate that Pakistan's decision to covertly supply weapons to Ukraine during its conflict with Russia, despite publicly maintaining neutrality, has come at a steep strategic cost. The Pakistan Ordnance Factories (POF) in Wah Cantt secretly routed large consignments of munitions-42,000 122mm BM-21 rockets, 60,000 155mm howitzer shells, and 130,000 additional 122mm rockets between February and March 2023 alone-reportedly earning $364 million. Reports suggest that up to 80% of these profits were diverted to the Pakistan Army's General Headquarters in Rawalpindi.

This arms trade boosted Pakistan's defence exports to $415 million in 2022-23, up from just $13 million the previous year-a staggering 3,000% surge. However, the exports have come at the expense of Pakistan's own war reserves, traditionally maintained by the POF to support its 600,000-strong armed forces.

By early 2025, defence analysts warned that Pakistan's forces could only withstand 96 hours of high-intensity warfare. Social media reports in April 2025 indicated that critical 155mm artillery shells-central to Pakistan's firepower-were extensively depleted due to shipments to Ukraine. This has rendered key systems such as the M109 howitzers and BM-21 rocket launchers severely under-armed.

The problem extends to Pakistan's newly acquired SH-15 Mounted Gun Systems, showcased in recent parades. These were expected to be supplied locally from POF Wah, but the shortage of 155mm rounds means even these advanced systems are now functionally impaired. Analysts have described these platforms as "sitting ducks," stripped of their operational effectiveness.

The gap between Pakistan and India's defence capabilities has widened considerably. While Pakistan's arms imports stood at $30.1 million against modest exports of $3.8 million in 2022, India increased its defence imports by 61% between 2015-19 and 2020-24. This disparity leaves Pakistan in a precarious position, especially as India continues to modernize its military arsenal.

Economic turmoil has compounded the crisis. Soaring inflation, mounting debt, and dwindling foreign reserves have severely restricted the Pakistan Army's operational capacity. Training exercises have been cancelled, rations reduced, and military manoeuvres called off due to fuel shortages. Former Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa admitted that Pakistan lacks the resources for a sustained war with India.

Public dissatisfaction is also growing. Many view the military's export decisions as prioritizing profit over national defence, accusing top brass of jeopardizing national security. Despite constructing new ammunition depots near the Indian border, intelligence sources report that there is barely enough stock to fill them.

At the May 2, 2025 Special Corps Commanders Conference, top military leaders reportedly addressed the deepening ammunition crisis. Sources suggest a prevailing sense of urgency and strategic anxiety among Pakistan's military hierarchy. Experts warn that the depletion of reserves may have inflicted lasting damage to Pakistan's defence posture-damage that could prove catastrophic in the event of a major conflict.