Ceasefire Agreement Between Israel and Hamas: Key Developments and Future Implications

The anticipated ceasefire and hostage release agreement between Israel and Hamas could begin as early as Sunday. This diplomatic breakthrough, the most significant in over a year of conflict, comes with risks and uncertainties. The deal, presented to the Israeli Cabinet after months of negotiations mediated by the US, Egypt, and Qatar, leaves many contentious issues unresolved. Concerns persist that without a follow-up agreement, hostilities might resume soon.

In Gaza, the prospect of increased humanitarian aid and a pause in bombardment has raised hopes among Palestinians. Over 46,000 people have died during the 15-month Israeli military campaign. Meanwhile, in Israel, families are preparing to welcome back relatives taken captive during Hamas's October 7 attack, which killed 1,200 people and led to the abduction of 250 others.

Initial Phase of the Agreement

Despite ongoing disputes between Israel and Hamas earlier this week, American and Qatari officials indicated that the first phase of the deal should commence on Sunday. This phase involves releasing 33 hostages held by Hamas in Gaza in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in Israel. The hostages include women, children, men over 50, and those who are sick or wounded.

Hamas has agreed to release three female hostages on the first day, four more by Day 7, and the remaining 26 over five weeks. Additionally, 600 humanitarian relief trucks are expected to enter Gaza daily, a significant increase from current levels deemed inadequate by the United Nations.

Impact on Gaza's Population

In Gaza, fighting is expected to cease with the Israeli army withdrawing eastward from populated areas. This will allow civilians to return to their homes. Approximately 90% of Gaza's population of 2.3 million has been displaced. Most Palestinian prisoners slated for release are women and minors jailed for non-violent offenses in the West Bank and east Jerusalem.

Diplomats hope that this ceasefire will pave the way for a lasting end to the war and facilitate Gaza's reconstruction. However, many challenges remain as both sides have different objectives.

Future Phases and Challenges

The second phase of the agreement is intended to be negotiated before the first phase concludes. Mediators have deliberately left this phase vague to encourage both parties to agree to a ceasefire. The broad outline suggests all remaining hostages in Gaza should be released in exchange for a complete Israeli withdrawal from the strip and a "sustainable calm."

Israel insists it will not fully withdraw until Hamas's military and political capabilities are dismantled. Meanwhile, Hamas maintains control over much of Gaza and demands an end to the war before releasing around 100 remaining Israeli hostages.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces pressure from his far-right allies who oppose the ceasefire. National security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir announced his party would leave the government unless fighting resumes. Finance minister Bezalel Smotrich also demanded assurances that Israel would continue its military efforts after some hostages are freed.

Many doubt that this ceasefire will address the root causes of the conflict. Amos Harel, a military affairs columnist for Haaretz, expressed skepticism about Hamas fulfilling its commitments in the second stage. There is also widespread suspicion regarding Netanyahu's intentions.

The situation remains complex with numerous hurdles ahead as both sides navigate these delicate negotiations under intense international scrutiny.