Hamas Mulls Over Slain Sinwar's Successor As Outfit's Next Chief Likely To Be Based Out Of Gaza: Reports

Hamas is expected to replace Yahya Sinwar with a new political leader based outside Gaza, while his brother, Mohammad Sinwar, is likely to take on a more crucial role in directing the war against Israel, according to experts.

According to a Reuters report, on choosing new leadership, Hamas will need to consider the preferences of its main supporter, Iran, as well as the interests of Qatar, where the leading candidates for the role of politburo chief currently reside.

Photo Credit: PTI

Sinwar, who orchestrated the October 7, 2023 attack that led to the devastating war in Gaza, was killed in a gunfight with Israeli forces on Wednesday - marking the second time in less than three months that Hamas has lost its top leader.

His predecessor, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated in Iran in July, likely by Israel. When Sinwar succeeded him, he combined both military and political leadership within Gaza, but this seems less probable in the current situation.

After over a year of relentless Israeli strikes that have significantly weakened Hamas, killed thousands of its fighters, and eliminated senior leaders both inside and outside of Gaza, it remains uncertain how the group will emerge from this latest setback.

Sinwar's deputy, Khalil Al-Hayya, a key contender to succeed him, issued a defiant statement on Friday, declaring that Israeli hostages would not be released until Israeli forces withdrew from Gaza and the war ended.

Hamas is known for quickly replacing its fallen leaders, with the Shura Council, the group's top decision-making body, responsible for selecting a new head. The Council represents Hamas members in Gaza, the West Bank, Israeli prisons, and the broader Palestinian community. This structure ensures that the new leader will have the authority to negotiate ceasefire talks, even if based outside Gaza, where Hamas militants continue to hold dozens of Israeli hostages.

In addition to Hayya, other potential candidates include Khaled Meshaal, Haniyeh's predecessor, and Mohammad Darwish, a lesser-known figure who chairs the Shura Council, according to analysts and Hamas sources.

Hamas will need to notify Qatar, which has played a significant role in ceasefire negotiations, and other regional capitals before announcing their decision, according to a source.

Splitting Responsibilities

Ashraf Abouelhoul, a specialist in Palestinian affairs, anticipates that Sinwar's responsibilities will be divided, with one leader focusing on military affairs and another managing the political office, handling international relations and policy development.

"Iran is Hamas' strongest ally, providing both financial and military support. Their approval will be crucial in deciding Sinwar's successor," said Abouelhoul, managing editor of the state-owned Al-Ahram newspaper in Egypt.

He predicted that Hamas would maintain its core demands in future ceasefire negotiations, particularly the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and an end to the war. However, the group could show some flexibility on other conditions, such as the terms for exchanging Israeli hostages with Palestinians imprisoned by Israel.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed Sinwar's death as a significant milestone but stressed that the war is far from over, vowing to continue fighting until the hostages are freed.

Founded in 1987 as an offshoot of the Sunni Islamist Muslim Brotherhood movement, Hamas typically makes decisions through consensus within its institutional frameworks.

With Sinwar gone, leadership in Gaza has temporarily passed to his Qatar-based deputy, Hayya. However, the ongoing conflict and communication challenges may limit the extent of Hayya's day-to-day control over operations on the ground, leaving the military wing, the Qassam Brigades, in a dominant position, experts suggest.

A Hamas source indicated that Hayya is not expected to face significant difficulties in acting as the "de facto Gaza leader," given his good relations with the military wing and close ties to both Sinwar and Haniyeh.

Akram Attallah, a Palestinian political analyst, believes the armed wing will respect Hayya's authority, even from a distance, and that Mohammad Sinwar is poised to play a more prominent role within the Qassam Brigades and Hamas as a whole.

A seasoned commander of the Qassam Brigades, Mohammad Sinwar has rarely appeared in public and has been on Israel's most-wanted list for a long time, surviving several assassination attempts, according to Hamas sources.

During the October 7 attack, Hamas-led militants killed 1,200 people and abducted 250 others, according to Israeli reports. This triggered an Israeli offensive that, according to Palestinian authorities, has killed over 42,000 Palestinians, devastated Gaza, and displaced almost its entire population.

Yahya Sinwar's appointment in August was seen as a symbol of defiance and internal unity within Hamas. His strong ties to Iran were considered an asset. Both Darwish and Hayya also have close connections to Tehran, whose support will be crucial for Hamas to recover after the war.

However, the prospects of former Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal have been complicated by his history of tensions with Iran, stemming from his support for the 2011 Sunni-led uprising against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Attallah noted that Hayya's ties to Iran give him an advantage over Meshaal, though if Iran were to soften its stance towards Meshaal, he could still have a chance to lead.