Explained | Sheikh Hasina's One-Woman Show In Bangladesh Elections

General elections are scheduled to be held in Bangladesh on 7 January, with the result already appearing inevitable. With the main opposition parties boycotting the poll and many of their leaders jailed, the ruling Awami League is poised to be re-elected for a fourth straight parliamentary term.

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the largest among these opposition parties, and its allies asserted that they have no faith in Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's commitment to holding a free and fair election. A call was made by them for her to step down and allow the polls to be conducted under a neutral interim government, a demand she rejected. Consequently, all the candidates on the ballot will be from the Awami League, its allies, or independents.

Abdul Moyeen Khan, a senior BNP leader, expressed the belief that "Democracy is dead in Bangladesh. What we are going to see in January is a fake election," echoing broader concerns that Sheikh Hasina has become increasingly autocratic over the years. Criticism has been raised about why the international community is not taking more action to hold her administration accountable.

However, accusations of being undemocratic are flatly rejected by her government. Law Minister Anisul Huq stated, "Elections are determined by the participation of the people to vote. There are many political parties, apart from the BNP, taking part in this election," according to BBC.

Bangladesh's Political Landscape: A Closer Look

Election Dynamics:

• General elections are scheduled in Bangladesh on January 7, where the ruling Awami League, led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, is poised for re-election despite opposition parties boycotting the poll.
• The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its allies, the main opposition, expressed a lack of faith in the fairness of the election under Sheikh Hasina, demanding her resignation and polls under a neutral interim government.

Economic Success and Challenges:

• Bangladesh, under Sheikh Hasina since 2009, has achieved notable economic success, becoming one of the fastest-growing economies in the region, with a tripling of per capita income and significant poverty reduction.
• Infrastructure projects, such as the $2.9bn Padma bridge, have contributed to economic growth, although the country faces challenges post-pandemic, including escalating living costs, inflation at around 9.5% in November, and dwindling foreign exchange reserves, reported BBC.

Human Rights Concerns:

• Critics argued that economic success has come at the expense of democracy and human rights, accusing Sheikh Hasina of repressive authoritarian measures against political opponents, detractors, and the media.
• Global figures, including Barack Obama, Richard Branson, and Bono, have expressed concern over "continuous judicial harassment," and human rights organizations report a rise in politically motivated arrests, disappearances, and killings under Hasina's rule.

Political Suppression and Opposition's Plight:

• Sheikh Hasina, once a proponent of multi-party democracy, has been facing allegations of suppressing opposition, with the arrest of many senior BNP leaders, thousands of supporters, and cases filed against millions of activists.
• BNP leaders asserted that more than 20,000 party supporters have been arrested on "fictitious and concocted charges," while the government denied these claims, stating that the actual number is half of what the BNP alleges.

International Concerns and Calls for Action:

• The worsening human rights situation has raised concerns among international agencies, with UN special rapporteurs expressing alarm over the weaponization of the judicial system and the erosion of fundamental human rights.
• The government denied involvement in reported abuses, but rights groups documented cases of enforced disappearances and extra-judicial killings by security forces since 2009, calling for tougher action by Western nations.

Hasina's one-woman show: A diplomatic balancing act

Accountability Calls:

• Karen Melchior, a member of the European Parliament, urged the European Commission to hold Bangladesh accountable for its democratic situation.
• The suggestion included considering the withdrawal of tariff-free access granted to Bangladesh's products, especially after looking at its position as the world's second-largest garment exporter.

Economic Importance:

• Bangladesh, a major garment exporter, shipped over $45 billion worth of ready-to-wear garments last year, with Europe and the US as primary markets.

Western Nations' Dilemma:

• Questions have arisen regarding why Western nations, possessing significant economic influence, allow Sheikh Hasina to dismantle democratic institutions without facing consequences.
• The influence of neighbouring countries, such as India, has played a crucial role in Western nations' approach, as India sought transport access through Bangladesh and has strategic concerns, especially regarding the "chicken's neck" corridor, according to ANI.

India's Interests:

• India opposed coercive action against Bangladesh, aiming for transport access for its northeastern states and expressed concerns about strategic vulnerabilities in potential conflicts with China, as per ANI reports.

China's Influence:

• China, keen on expanding its footprint in Bangladesh, could benefit if Dhaka feels pressured by Western nations, potentially impacting the regional power dynamics between China and India.

Path to Power for Hasina:

• Sheikh Hasina currently enjoyed a clear path to power, supported by India and her actions against ethnic insurgent groups along India's north-eastern border, reported Bangladesh-based Daily Star.
• Challenges to her authority emerged post-election, with Dhaka seeking a substantial loan from the International Monetary Fund to avert a balance of payment crisis.

Economic Measures Ahead:

• The government is likely to implement tough measures post-election to boost the economy, potentially facing public fallout from austerity policies.

However, Sheikh Hasina's political journey remains closely connected with diplomatic complexities, economic considerations, and the delicate balance of regional power dynamics.