Donald Trump Or Kamala Harris - Who Will Win US Presidential Elections? Check Poll Predictions

As we edge closer to the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the battle between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is intensifying, with Harris slightly ahead according to current polls. However, the trust in these polls is wavering due to historical inaccuracies, notably the underestimation of Trump's support in the 2016 and 2020 elections.

Who Will Win The US Presidential Elections?

Right now, however, polls are indicating a historically close race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

Current polling shows Harris leading Trump by about 2%, but this is also the closest Trump has ever come to a Democratic rival in national polls.A HarrisX/Forbes poll conducted between Wednesday and Friday shows Harris leading Trump 49%-48% among likely voters, with a one-point margin of error.

In other recent polls, Harris holds a four-point lead (51%-47%) in a PBS News/NPR/Marist survey and a two-point lead (49%-47%) in a Morning Consult survey released Sunday, also with a one-point margin of error.

An ABC/Ipsos poll finds Harris leading by three points, 49%-46%, a slight change from 51%-47% last week and 50%-48% in early October.

Meanwhile, both NBC News and Emerson College polls released Sunday report a 49%-49% tie between Harris and Trump, with a Yahoo News/YouGov survey also showing a deadlock at 47%-47%.

Though pollsters correctly predicted Joe Biden's win in 2020, his victory margin over Trump turned out to be tighter than many pre-election polls suggested.

"National polls can be misleading if used to predict overall outcomes," says Thomas Gift, director of the Centre on US Politics at University College London, in an interview with DW.

"Right now, for example, it looks like Kamala Harris might win the popular vote, as she's up by a couple of percentage points. But whether she will win the Electoral College is still uncertain."

In the U.S., presidents are elected by securing at least 270 of 538 Electoral College votes, rather than by popular vote alone. Each state is allocated electoral votes based on its number of Congressional members, which are generally pledged to the state's most popular candidate - although Maine and Nebraska allow for split allocations.

This system has previously enabled candidates like Trump and George W. Bush (in 2000) to win the presidency despite receiving fewer popular votes than their opponents.

The challenge for pollsters is accurately capturing the American voter landscape, particularly Trump's base, which has historically been reticent to participate in polling.

The art and science of polling are tasked with accurately sampling likely voters, applying demographic quotas to ensure a representative snapshot of the electorate. However, one of the major hurdles is reaching "anti-establishment" voters, who lean heavily towards Trump but often shun pollsters.

This group's reluctance has prompted Siena College Research Institute, recognized for its meticulous polling methods in partnership with the New York Times, to revise its strategy. By adjusting its methodology to include these hard-to-reach individuals, Siena aims to provide a more accurate reflection of voter sentiment, thereby narrowing the margin of error observed in past elections.

Another layer of complexity in forecasting the election outcome is the Electoral College system, which emphasizes the significance of swing states such as Pennsylvania. These states are crucial as they hold the power to tip the presidential race in favour of one candidate.

Both Harris and Trump are pouring resources into Pennsylvania, highlighting its key role in this tight contest. This strategic focus underlines the unpredictability embedded within the U.S. electoral process, where the overall popular vote does not always align with the Electoral College outcome.

Despite polls offering a glimpse into potential election dynamics, their reliability hinges on capturing a representative sample of the electorate and the intricacies of the Electoral College. The narrow lead that Harris holds over Trump, combined with the polling challenges, accentuates the unpredictable nature of the upcoming election.

Pollsters' efforts to refine their approach, especially in accounting for non-responsive voters, are crucial to bridging the gap between predicted and actual election results.

Ultimately, the accuracy of election polls is a reflection of how well pollsters can navigate the complexities of the American political landscape.