Why Democrats Replacing Biden as Nominee Is Unlikely Despite Concerns

As President Joe Biden works to reassure his supporters after a poorly received debate performance, Democrats remain concerned about his position as the nominee for November. However, party rules and historical precedent offer few realistic alternatives. Some Democrats consider unlikely scenarios: Biden stepping down voluntarily or an eleventh-hour effort to sway pledged delegates at the convention.

Delegates' Obligations

Under Democratic rules, candidates earn delegates based on their primary or caucus performance. In 2024, Biden won nearly all primaries and the majority of delegates. These delegates are "pledged" to him but are not legally bound. The rules state, "All delegates to the National Convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them."

Challenges to a presumptive nominee are rare and difficult. Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, noted, "It has been tried, and it usually fails." She added that a strong alternative to Biden is necessary, which currently does not exist.

Historical Context

The "good conscience" rule was adopted by the DNC in 1982 after reforms to its nomination process. Initially, a rule required delegates to vote for their selected candidate, dubbed "the robot rule" by opponents. This rule was repealed in favour of allowing delegates more discretion.

If Biden were to withdraw before the convention, delegates could support another candidate. Hans Noel from Georgetown University explained that there are no specific rules for such an event but suggested a withdrawal speech might guide delegates' choices.

Post-Convention Withdrawal

If a nominee withdraws after the convention, DNC rules are clearer. The DNC would consult with Democratic leaders to fill the vacancy. However, this scenario poses challenges like ballot access deadlines and limited time for a new nominee to campaign.

Bill DeMora from the Ohio Democratic Party dismissed concerns about Biden not being the nominee as "typical Democratic overreacting." Despite this, some Democrats remain uneasy about Biden's candidacy.

In 1968, President Lyndon Johnson withdrew from the race after primaries had begun but before receiving the nomination. Vice President Hubert Humphrey was chosen by delegates despite not participating in primaries. This led to changes in the party's primary system.

Potential Rule Changes

State parties set nomination procedures and can change rules anytime. The DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee could implement new rules before the convention if needed. Noel stated, "The RNC and DNC both write their own rules... And they can change them when they see a need."

In 1976 and 1980, Presidents Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter faced strong convention challenges but secured nominations and lost general elections. These instances highlight how rare last-minute nominee changes are.

The path to selecting a new nominee would be clearer if Biden stepped aside voluntarily, though he has shown no indication of considering this option. For now, Democrats must navigate existing rules and precedents as they prepare for November's election.