Chinese rocket debris expected to crash land in unknown location

Washington, July 27: A Chinese rocket, which was launched on Sunday, will ultimately crash-land back on Earth in a few days, but scientists are unclear when the debris from the rocket will hit the Earth.

On Sunday afternoon local time, the Long March 5B took off from the launch site in Wenchang, in the southern province of Hainan. China used the said rocket to send the Wentian lab into orbit.

"Unfortunately, it is probable that the 21-tonne core stage will be left in low orbit to make an uncontrolled reentry at an unpredictable location," Jonathan McDowell, astronomer at the Center of Astrophysics, tweeted.

According to the Washington Post, experts believe it is highly unlikely that the debris will hit an inhabited area, but the uncertainty makes it unnecessarily risky. Experts have predicted that debris might land in the US, Africa, Australia, Brazil, India and Southeast Asia.

"On April 29, 2021, China launched the first module, Tianhe, of its Tiangong space station on their heaviest rocket to date, the Long March 5B. The rocket body traveled with the module to orbit, resulting in an uncontrolled reentry of the rocket's core stage. The rocket's path crossed several populated areas and captured the world's attention before eventually landing in the Indian Ocean near the Maldives on May 8.

This past Sunday, July 24, 2022, the second module of the space station, Wentian, launched on an identical Long March 5B rocket. At this point, it appears that the launch is similar to previous flights with an uncontrolled reentry of the rocket body expected," Aerospace Corp., a nonprofit based in El Segundo, California, that receives US funding, said.

It further said that the probability of the surviving debris landing in a populated area is "zero" due to the uncontrolled nature of its descent.

However, China's state-run media Global Times dismissed the concern. A mission insider told the daily that it is "ignorant manipulation of facts, which projected once again the "sour grapes" mentality of some in the West toward the robust development of China's aerospace sector." Another insider claimed that the mission was executed strictly in line with international practice.

"China ruled out the possibility of causing ground damage at the design stage, and its capability to ensure the re-entry safety has proven itself reliable again and again. What is behind such smears is total jealousy of us," Song Zhongping, a TV commentator who closely follows China's space program, told the Global Times on Tuesday.

In May 2021, fragments of China's Long March 5B-rocket, which was launched with the first module for the country's orbital station, entered the Earth's atmosphere over the Indian Ocean.

"On May 9, at 10:24 [02:24 GMT] the debris from the Chang Zheng 5B carrier rocket re-entered the Earth's atmosphere, the location where the debris fell into the water is at longitude 72.47 degrees east, latitude 2.65 degrees north (next to the Maldives in the Indian Ocean). Most of the debris burned up upon entry into the Earth's atmosphere," CMSEO said.