Uncertainty Shadows Biden-Trump Rematch Six Months Before Election

Wilmington, North Carolina, May 6 AP This North Carolina voter is nervous. Will Rikard, a 49-year-old father of two, was among several hundred Democrats who stood and cheered for Joe Biden as the first-term president delivered a fiery speech recently about the billions of dollars he has delivered to protect the states drinking water. But afterward, the Wilmington resident acknowledged he is worried about Bidens political standing in the looming rematch with former Republican President Donald Trump. "Theres not enough energy," Rikard said of Bidens coalition. "I think people are gonna need to wake up and get going." Exactly six months before Election Day, Biden and Trump are locked in the first contest in 112 years with a current and former president competing for the White House. Its a race that is at once deeply entrenched and highly in flux as many voters are only just beginning to embrace the reality of the 2024 campaign. Wars, trials, the independent candidacy of Robert Kennedy Jr. and deep divisions across America have injected extraordinary uncertainty into a race for the White House in which either man would be the oldest president ever sworn in on Inauguration Day. At the same time, policy fights over abortion, immigration and the economy are raging on Capitol Hill and in statehouses.VOTERS IN DENIALHovering over it all is the disbelief of many voters, despite all evidence to the contrary, that Biden and Trump – their respective parties presumptive nominees – will ultimately appear on the general election ballot this fall. "I think we have an electorate thats going through the stages of grief about this election," said Sarah Longwell, who conducts regular focus groups with voters across the political spectrum as co-founder of Republican Voters Against Trump. "Theyve done denial – Not these two, cant possibly be these two. And I think theyre in depression now. Im waiting for people to hit acceptance." Trump is in the midst of the first of potentially four criminal trials and facing felony charges. The Constitution does not prevent him from assuming the presidency if convicted – or even if he is in prison. Biden, who will turn 82 years old just weeks after Election Day, Nov. 5, is already the oldest president in U.S. history; Trump is 77. Privately, Democratic operatives close to the campaign worry constantly about Bidens health and voters dim perceptions of it. In recent weeks, aides have begun walking at Bidens side as he strolls to and from Marine One, the presidential helicopter, on the White House South Lawn in an apparent effort to help mask the presidents stiff gait. Still, neither party is making serious contingency plans. Whether voters want to believe it or not, the general election matchup is all but set.North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, said many voters are recovering from what he called "a knock-down, drag-out fight" that was the 2020 presidential election. "Many of them have not wrapped their heads around the fact that it is, in fact, going to be a rematch," Cooper said in an interview. "When they do, I dont think theres any question that Joe Biden is going to win the day.GETTING TO 270 ELECTORIAL VOTES – THE BATTLEGROUND STATESEven before voters begin paying close attention, the political map in the fight for the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency is already taking shape. Bidens campaign is increasingly optimistic about North Carolina, a state he lost by just 1 percentage point in 2020. Overall, the Democratic presidents reelection campaign has several hundred staff in more than 133 offices in the seven most critical states: Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin and North Carolina.Trumps team has barely begun to roll out swing-state infrastructure, although he campaigned in Wisconsin and Michigan over the past week, sending a clear signal that he wants to block Bidens path to reelection via the Democrats Midwestern "blue wall.Trump campaign senior adviser Chris LaCivita said Trump is making plans to invest new resources in at least two other Democratic-leaning states. At a private donor retreat in Florida on Saturday, LaCivita discussed the campaigns plans to expand its electoral map into Virginia and Minnesota, based on the Trump teams growing optimism that both states are within reach. "We have a real opportunity to expand the map here," LaCivita told The Associated Press. "The Biden campaign has spent tens of millions of dollars on TV ads and in their vaunted ground game. And they have nothing to show for it." Bidens campaign welcomed Trumps team to spend money in Democratic states. "The Biden campaign is going to relentlessly focus on the pathway to 270 electoral votes, and thats what our efforts represent, campaign communications director Michael Tyler said.Biden has been spending far more aggressively on election infrastructure and advertising heading into the six-month stretch toward Election Day. In the eight weeks since Trump essentially clinched the Republican nomination, his campaign has spent virtually nothing on television advertising, according to the media tracking firm AdImpact. Outside groups aligned with Trump have spent just over $9 million. Over the same period, AdImpact found, Biden and his allies have spent more than $29 million spread across Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.Trumps team has been unusually conservative, in part, to avoid the perceived mistakes of 2020 when his campaign essentially ran out of money and was forced to cut back on advertising in critical final days but also because it has struggled to reignite its appeal with small donors and because of diversion of some dollars to former presidents legal defense.Trumps team insists it will soon ramp up its advertising and on-the-ground infrastructure although LaCivita refused to offer any specifics.VOTERS UNDERWHELMED WITH THEIR OPTIONSIt is clear that Biden and Trump have serious work to do to improve their standing with voters. While optimistic in public Biden allies privately acknowledge that his approval ratings may be lower than Democrat Jimmy Carters numbers at this point in his presidency.Trumps ratings are not much better.Public polling consistently shows that voters dont like their 2024 options.Only about 2 in 10 Americans say they would be excited by Biden 21% or Trump 25% being elected president according to an AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll conducted in March.Only about one-quarter of voters in survey say they would be satisfied about each.A CNN poll conducted in April found that 53% of registered voters say they are dissatisfied with presidential candidates they have to choose from this years election.Another major wild card is Kennedy,a member of storied political dynasty an anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist who is running as an independent.Both major campaigns are taking him seriously as potential spoiler with Trumps allies notably ramping up their criticism of Kennedy recent days.BIDENS PLAN: REMIND VOTERS WHAT TRUMPS PRESIDENCY WAS LIKEFor now Bidens team is most focused on reminding voters of Trumps divisive leadership.Three years after Trump left office there is sense that some voters may have forgotten what it was like with former reality television star Oval Office – or his efforts overturn 2020 election that landed him legal peril."The plan is reminding voters what life was like with Trump also demonstrating voters ways which world feels uncertain them now are not fact caused by president but can actually navigated by this president,Biden pollster Mary Murphy told AP.Voters will trust his leadership stewardship knowing things can lot worse if its Donald Trump."Bidens team also betting fierce backlash new restrictions abortion which Trump Republicans largely championed will drive voters Democrats like did 2022 midterm election 2023 state races.But Bidens success also dependent Democrats ability reassemble his winning coalition from 2020 time when enthusiasm lagging among critical voting blocs including Blacks young Arab Americans unhappy over presidents handling war Gaza.TRUMPS PLAN: TURN HIS LEGAL WOES TO HIS ADVANTAGETrump has been forced adapt his campaign first criminal trial New York.Prosecutors allege committed financial fraud hide hush money payments porn actor Stormy Daniels who says she had sexual encounter with Trump.He denies her claim pleaded not guilty.For now Trump forced attend trial most weekdays.A verdict likely still weeks away.And after faces prospect more trials related efforts overturn 2020 election handling classified documents.Supreme Court weighing whether should granted immunity or partial immunity actions took while office.Trump past week wedged campaign stops around court schedule rallying voters Wisconsin Michigan where abortion debate raging.Trump seemed searching way lessen political sting upheaval over Supreme Courts overturning national abortion rights.Former president suggested issue will ultimately bring country together states carve out differing laws."A lot bad things will happen beyond abortion issue if you dont win elections your taxes everything else he told Michigan voters.Trumps camp privately maintains unprecedented trial New York will dominate news – voters attention – foreseeable future.His campaign largely stopped trying roll out unrelated news during trial.Even if were convicted by New York jury advisers insist fundamentals election will not change.Trump worked aggressively undermine public confidence charges against him.Meanwhile more traditional issues work favor including stubbornly high inflation situation U.S.-Mexico border view team.LaCivita said such issues constantly reinforce Bidens weakness as news day keeps getting worse."Both sides seem agree dynamics race may yet shift dramatically based any number factors from how economy fares course wars Gaza Ukraine crime migration trends other foreseen events.Potential candidate debates fall could another wild card.Such uncertainty said battleground states director Dan Kanninen can play favor."That dynamic opportunity much challenge us he said because we will have resources infrastructure operation built engaging voters throughout difficult waters."AP RPA