America's Closest Ally in Syria Confronts New Challenges as Sunni Arab Rebels Gain Ground

The Syrian conflict, ongoing for 14 years, has seen jihadist rebels overthrow President Bashar Assad. They aim to establish a unified nation. However, achieving this goal is challenging, especially for the Kurdish minority, America's key ally in Syria. The Kurds have defended their territory against various factions and collaborated with the US to defeat the Islamic State group. They have established an autonomous region in eastern Syria.

Despite these achievements, the Kurds face new threats. Sunni Arab rebels, who ousted Assad with Turkey's support, complicate the Kurds' position in Syria's future. This situation could prolong the conflict. The rebels have shown some willingness to engage peacefully with the Kurds but have also expelled Kurdish fighters from Deir al-Zour after government troops left.

Challenges Facing Syrian Kurds

In northern Syria, Turkey-backed opposition forces seized Manbij from the Kurds. Turkey also launched airstrikes on a Kurdish convoy, accusing it of transporting weapons taken from government stockpiles. The Kurds have relied on US support to counter such threats. Approximately 900 American troops are stationed in eastern Syria, working with Kurdish forces to prevent an Islamic State resurgence.

The future of US involvement is uncertain under President-elect Donald Trump, who has expressed doubts about America's role in Syria. The Kurds are one of the largest stateless ethnic groups globally, numbering around 30 million across Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria. In Syria, they established an autonomous region early in the civil war without fully aligning with Assad or his opponents.

Turkey's Stance on Kurdish Forces

Turkey views the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) as an extension of its own Kurdish insurgency and labels them a terrorist group akin to IS. Turkey has trained and funded the Syrian National Army (SNA) to seize territory from the Kurds along its border. Although the SNA claims to oppose Assad, analysts suggest their actions are driven by opportunism and animosity toward the Kurds.

With IS largely defeated and a tacit truce with Assad, the Kurds have concentrated on fighting the SNA recently. However, Damascus's new leadership might open another front due to its ties with Turkey. Ahmad al-Sharaa leads the main rebel faction and aims to create a new Syria inclusive of all communities.

Rebel Relations with Kurdish Forces

Nawaf Khalil from the Center for Kurdish Studies noted that rebels avoided SDF-controlled areas in Aleppo during their recent advance. "It is also positive that they did not speak negatively about the Syrian Democratic Forces," he said. Yet tensions remain as rebels threaten further advances into Kurdish territories like Raqqa.

The rebels might seek an agreement with the Kurds for inclusion in post-Assad governance but would need to accept some Kurdish autonomy in eastern Syria. This could upset Turkey, now a major power broker in Syria. The US military commander for the Middle East met with SDF forces recently, indicating continued support under Biden's administration.

US Policy Uncertainty

However, changes may occur after January 20 when Trump takes office. He has been vague about his Middle East policy but wants to end regional conflicts and reduce US involvement. Before Assad's fall, Trump stated on social media that "Syria is a mess" and not America's concern.

In 2019, Trump withdrew support from the Kurds before a Turkish offensive but later approved a mission to secure oil fields in eastern Syria after criticism from Republicans who accused him of betraying an ally. Despite these shifts, US troops remained in place and maintained their alliance with Kurdish forces.