After Khamenei’s Death, Who Will Be Iran’s Next Supreme Leader? Why His Son Is Unlikely To Be Chosen

The article examines competing visions for Iran's political future after Ayatollah Khamenei's death, highlighting exile and regime figures, US and Israeli airstrikes, and debates over monarchy versus republic, as security forces and international players influence the transition path and potential governance models.

Iran’s power vacuum after the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is fuelling a fresh contest between exiled opposition figures and regime insiders, as United States and Israeli airstrikes sharpen pressure on Tehran and raise questions over who will shape the country’s next political chapter.

On one side, opposition leader Maryam Rajavi is urging a break with both monarchy and clerical rule, while exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi calls for unity but keeps the door open to a constitutional role. At the same time, senior regime names, including Mojtaba Khamenei and Hassan Khomeini, are being discussed as possible successors inside Iran.

Iran opposition outlines rival visions after Khamenei’s death

Rajavi, president-elect of the Paris-based National Council of Resistance of Iran, responded to the joint United States-Israel strikes by demanding the full removal of the ruling clerics and the establishment of a democratic republic. The message came as tensions rise over Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes and as uncertainty deepens following Khamenei’s killing alongside Hassan Khomeini.

In a statement shared with The Post, Rajavi said, "Our homeland continues to endure greater pain and destruction under the rule of religious fascism," and appealed to Iranians, especially the country’s "courageous youth", to shield civilians amid growing unrest and potential clashes between state forces and protesters across major cities.

Iran opposition seeks support from military and security forces

Both Rajavi and Pahlavi are trying to win over the security establishment during this fragile period. Rajavi asked members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other forces to drop their arms and align with protesters, while Pahlavi warned security agencies they would "sink with Khamenei's ship" if they stood by the current leadership instead of "protect[ing] Iran and the Iranian nation."

Rajavi highlighted a "10-point plan" as a template for any interim authority. The plan calls for free elections, the separation of religion and government, equal rights for women and men, and a non-nuclear Iran, which Rajavi presents as a roadmap for a limited transitional phase before power passes to elected institutions.

Iran opposition and the debate over monarchy versus republic

The NCRI, formed after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, portrays itself as a government-in-exile, claiming it is prepared to run a six-month transitional administration to hold open elections and hand authority to voters. Rajavi insists this process should lead to a republican system rather than restoring the Shah-era monarchy dismissed in 1979.

Reinforcing that position, Rajavi stated, "Now is the time for solidarity," arguing that people in Iran "[Iranians] reject both the Shah and the mullahs," and making clear that any future system, in her view, must exclude both dynastic rule and religious dominance, while still allowing citizens to determine the final constitutional model.

Rajavi later added that "Our path leads toward the future and the establishment of a democratic republic," insisting it should be "not a return to the buried dictatorship of the past." The remarks directly challenge Pahlavi’s potential role, though both figures claim they want pluralism and competitive elections during any transition.

Pahlavi, son of Iran’s last monarch, has previously told The Post that there is also a prepared plan for a democratic handover if the Islamic Republic collapses under internal protests and external pressure. However, Pahlavi has not pledged to remove the monarchy option, instead speaking of a process where the population would decide institutional arrangements.

Iran opposition reacts to US airstrikes and international pressure

Responding online after the latest military action, Pahlavi described the United States strikes as a "humanitarian intervention" directed at the leadership rather than the broader population. Pahlavi wrote, "The final victory will still be achieved by us," stressing that foreign military steps could not substitute for domestic mobilisation and collective effort.

In the same message, Pahlavi said, "It is we, the people of Iran, who will finish this task in this final battle. The time to return to the streets is approaching." The comments hinted at expectations of renewed protests, recalling earlier waves of demonstrations that challenged the Islamic Republic’s authority.

Pahlavi also appealed to President Trump, asking for "the utmost possible caution" if further strikes occur, to minimise civilian harm. Expressing gratitude for foreign backing, Pahlavi said Iranians "will not forget your assistance during the most difficult period of Iran's contemporary history." Pahlavi did not immediately issue additional statements when approached for comment.

United States officials have framed the joint campaign, dubbed "Operation Epic Fury," as an urgent response to Iranian actions, including support for armed groups. The strikes reportedly killed a "large number" of Iranian leaders, according to President Trump, and triggered retaliatory ballistic missile launches by Iran against a United States military base in Saudi Arabia.

Analysts quoted in a CIA assessment have warned that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could mount a power grab after Khamenei’s death. The report said the IRGC might try to shape the succession or even tighten direct control if unrest grows, while factions inside the clerical establishment debate the next supreme leader.

Why Mojtaba Khamenei May Not Be Chosen

Khamenei has held the post since 1989, following the death of the Islamic Republic's founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Over the decades, he has guided Iran through wars, sanctions, political unrest, and long-standing tensions with Western nations.

1. Constitutional Requirements

Under Iran's Constitution, the Assembly of Experts is responsible for selecting the Supreme Leader. The candidate must meet certain conditions, including having strong political experience.
Reports suggest that although Mojtaba has influence and is believed to help manage aspects of the Supreme Leader's office informally, he has not held any official political position within the government. This lack of formal experience could weaken his eligibility.

2. Religious and Traditional Concerns

Another major hurdle is religious tradition. In Shi'a Islamic belief, leadership by bloodline is reserved for the 12 divinely appointed Imams. The idea of a hereditary transfer of power could raise concerns.
Interestingly, Khamenei himself was chosen in 1989 instead of Khomeini's influential son, Ahmad, partly to avoid the appearance of hereditary rule.
In a 2023 speech, Khamenei reportedly stated that "dictatorship and hereditary government are not Islamic," signalling discomfort with dynastic leadership.

3. Internal Opposition Within Leadership

Reports from policy research groups suggest that discussions about Mojtaba's possible succession were previously discouraged. According to accounts, when members of the Assembly of Experts explored the idea, Khamenei reportedly rejected such investigations, saying they could create suspicion about hereditary leadership.
This suggests that even within the system, there may be resistance to the idea of his son taking over.

4. Risk of Political Turmoil

Analysts believe that appointing Mojtaba could trigger political unrest, both within Iran's leadership circles and among the public. Khamenei is said to have aimed for a smooth transition of power by carefully selecting potential successors.