EXPLAINED | Why Pakistan Faces A Dual Taliban Threat After Years Of Support

For decades, Pakistan has played a crucial role in nurturing the Taliban, considering them a strategic ally. This support, rooted in a complex geopolitical strategy, aimed to destabilize neighboring Afghanistan and secure Pakistan's interests.

Pakistan not only recognized the Taliban's Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan but also provided military assistance to bolster their cause, as reported by India Today. However, in a dramatic turn of events, the very Taliban Pakistan helped rise to power is now turning against its creator.

Photo Credit: PTI

Escalating Tensions: Taliban Strikes Back

The latest escalation began with Pakistani airstrikes targeting the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in eastern Afghanistan's Paktika province. These airstrikes resulted in the deaths of dozens, including women and children, triggering outrage from the Afghan Taliban, as reported by India Today. In response, the Taliban has vowed retaliation, with around 15,000 fighters reportedly marching from major Afghan cities towards Pakistan's border. The situation is quickly becoming a powder keg, with both sides threatening further violence.

The Afghan Taliban, in power since 2021, and the TTP, a militant group operating along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, are separate entities, but their alliance has been widely recognized. Pakistan now faces a dual challenge: the TTP conducting terror attacks from Afghan soil and the growing tension with Afghanistan's Taliban government.

The Taliban's Betrayal: From Allies to Adversaries

Historically, Pakistan's relationship with the Taliban has been complex but mutually beneficial. Since the 1990s, Pakistan, through its powerful intelligence agency ISI, provided the Taliban with military and logistical support. Pakistan's strategic goal was to create a friendly government in Kabul that would counterbalance India's influence in the region. However, over time, this alliance, which was initially nurtured as a tool to exert influence, has backfired.

The turning point came after the Taliban's rise to power in Afghanistan in 2021. While Pakistan initially viewed this as a victory, its inability to control the situation has resulted in a surge of violence from the TTP, which is now emboldened and more active, as reported by India Today. The Afghan Taliban's reluctance to address cross-border terrorism is fueling Pakistan's frustration, exacerbating already fragile relations.

Pakistan's Growing Terror Problem

Following the Taliban's return to power, Pakistan has witnessed a sharp increase in terror attacks. In 2023 alone, terror-related fatalities rose by 56%, with over 1,500 deaths, including more than 500 security personnel. The TTP aims to establish an Islamic emirate in Pakistan, much like its counterpart in Afghanistan.

Despite Pakistan's military efforts against the TTP and other militant groups, the Afghan Taliban has been accused of failing to curb cross-border terrorism, leaving Pakistan exposed to heightened instability. Pakistani authorities have also imposed trade restrictions and expelled over 500,000 undocumented Afghan migrants, further straining relations between the two nations.

A Strategic Miscalculation

Pakistan's decades-long policy of nurturing terror groups for strategic purposes is now proving to be a dangerous miscalculation. The situation has unfolded exactly as Hillary Clinton famously warned in 2011: "You can't keep snakes in your backyard and expect them only to bite your neighbours. Eventually, those snakes are going to turn on whoever has them in the backyard."

The rise of the Afghan Taliban and its alliance with the TTP has created a situation where Pakistan is being forced to contend with not one, but two hostile Taliban factions. What Pakistan once saw as a strategic asset has now evolved into a volatile force threatening its own stability, as per media reports. The repercussions of Pakistan's decades-long support for terrorism are now manifesting in full force, and the country is paying the price for its involvement in nurturing extremist elements.

Conclusion: A Dangerous Double-Edged Sword

Pakistan's nurturing of the Taliban, once a tactic to gain leverage in the region, has turned into a complex nightmare. With the Taliban on one side and the TTP on the other, Pakistan finds itself caught in a web of its own making. As the situation continues to evolve, the consequences of Pakistan's long-standing support for terror groups are becoming increasingly clear. The once strategic ally is now an unpredictable threat, and Pakistan must now grapple with the fallout of its past decisions.