When Siddaramaiah said he was a front-runner for the post of chief minister and not the chief ministerial candidate, he did manage to create some amount of doubt. The question is who will be the CM in case the Congress manages to win the elections.
There are plenty of scenarios that could pan outpost the elections in case the Congress wins or is in a position to form the government with support from another party.
If the Congress wins the state with a comfortable majority, then the chances are that Siddaramaiah would be the CM. This is because he is leading the campaign as a sitting CM.
What if the Congress wins and Siddaramaiah loses one of his seats. Siddaramaiah is contesting from both Chamundeshwari and Badami. In case he loses one of the seats, his opponents within the party (there are many by the way) would cite a moral defeat and not let him take the top post.
What if the Congress gets a majority and Siddaramaiah wins both seats too? A lot would then depend on the victory of Dr. G Parameshwar from Korategere. He had lost the last elections by a margin of 18,000 votes. In case he wins this time, he could rightfully seek the chair of CM as he is also the president of the Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee. A lot would, however, depend then on the high command and also the margin that Parameshwar wins the elections with.
The Congress falls short and needs the support of the JD(S). In such an event it is without doubt curtains for Siddaramaiah. Deve Gowda's first condition would be to have a government without his former party man, Siddaramaiah.
|Karnataka Assembly Election dates|
|Date of notification||April 17|
|Last date to file nominations||April 24|
|Last date to withdraw nominations||April 27|
|Date of polling||May 12|
|Date of counting||May 15|