Why OBCs and not Patidar’s will decide outcome of Gujarat elections

At a Rajkot rally, Hardik Patel who sounded wary said that the BJP was trying to divide the Patidars into Kadva and Leuva. All they do is divide people, we are one, we are Patidar's, he said.

This statement is quite a heavy one and as opposed to the calculations, the Patidars may not be the kingmakers in the state of Gujarat after all. The OBCs, on the other hand, make up for 51 percent of the state's population. Kolis, an OBC community alone make up for around 20 percent of the population in Gujarat, making them the largest population in the state.

Patidar's, on the other hand, make up for just 12 percent of the population. In several of the constituencies, the split in the Patidar vote would ensure that the OBCs take centre stage. The Patidar split is also owing to several of Hardik Patel's inner circle breaking away from him at crucial moments of the elections.

Let us take a look at the Dhoraji constituency in Rajkot. There are around 70,000 Patidar voters. In this constituency, both the sub castes Leuva Patels and Kadva Patels are present in large and equal numbers. It is clear that that the battle here is shaping out to be a Leuva vs Kadva fight. The BJP has fielded Haribhai Patel, a Kadva while the Congress has gone with Lalit Vasoya, a Leuva.

However, in this constituency, it would not be the Patels who would be the deciding factor. It would be the 82,000 Non-Koli OBCs and 7,000 Kolis who would call the shots.

While the OBCs may not be present in the largest number of the other seats, they would still end up playing kingmakers owing to a split in the Patel votes. The BJP is confident that they have overcome the Hardik threat. He may have caused a dent in certain pockets, but the BJP says that it would not be fatal to their chances. Moreover, recent exit polls also showed that the Patidar support for the BJP is quite intact. One poll showed that the BJP is likely to get 52 percent of the Patidar votes.

OneIndia News