Who Will Be New BJP Chief? Deadlock Between BJP-RSS Continues

The BJP and RSS are at a standstill over selecting a new national president. This decision might be influenced by discussions at the upcoming RSS meeting in Delhi. Senior BJP leaders anticipate that the new president will initiate significant changes within the party.

JP Nadda's term as BJP chief ended in January 2023, but his tenure was extended until June 2024 to guide the party through the Lok Sabha elections. Insiders suggest that appointing a working president in June could have sent a clear signal, similar to when Amit Shah was still party chief, and JP Nadda was named working president before his formal elevation in January 2020.

RSS Criteria for New Leadership

The RSS has communicated its criteria for the next president to the BJP's top brass. They emphasise that the leader should be organisationally strong without focusing on political messaging through their appointment. The RSS also desires an overhaul within the government alongside organisational changes.

A crucial RSS meeting, Akhil Bharatiya Prant Pracharak Baithak, is scheduled in Delhi from July 4 to 6. It will be attended by RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat, general secretary Dattatreya Hosabale, and all six joint general secretaries. Sources indicate that BJP leadership might discuss with RSS functionaries during this meeting to potentially finalise the next party chief.

State-Level Appointments and Challenges

The BJP aims to complete state-level appointments first, especially in key states like Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra, and West Bengal. This approach is intended to convey internal consensus before deciding on national leadership.

In Uttar Pradesh, caste equations complicate the selection process. Discussions have occurred between Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath regarding potential candidates. Suggestions for Dalit and OBC faces have been sought, but Amit Shah and Prime Minister Narendra Modi will make the final decision.

Potential Candidates Across States

Names considered for OBC representation include Animal Husbandry Minister Dharmpal Singh and Union Minister BL Verma from the Lodhi community. Former Union Minister Sadhvi Niranjan Jyoti and Rajya Sabha MP Baburam Nishad are also reportedly being considered. For Dalit representation, former Union Minister Ram Shankar Katheria and MPs Vidyasagar Sonkar and Vinod Sonkar are among those discussed.

In Karnataka, former Chief Minister BS Yediyurappa wants his son BY Vijayendra to retain his post due to Lingayat support. However, some believe Vijayendra lacks his father's appeal among Lingayats and infighting under him has hurt the party. Alternatives include Sunil Kumar (an OBC) and C T Ravi (a Vokkaliga).

Leadership Dynamics in Key Regions

Maharashtra's current working president Ravindra Chavan is likely to be formally elevated due to his proximity to Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis. In West Bengal, incumbent Sukanta Majumdar is also a Union Minister; hence leadership must decide if he can focus solely on party duties.

Other contenders include Rajya Sabha MP Shamik Bhattacharya gaining importance within Delhi circles. State leader Suvendu Adhikari is interested in the role; however, RSS remains sceptical due to his TMC roots. Names of women leaders like Locket Chatterjee and Agnimitra Paul are also being discussed as potential candidates against Mamata Banerjee's TMC in next year's polls.

Caste Considerations in Madhya Pradesh

Madhya Pradesh faces challenges balancing its complex caste matrix with OBCs, SCs, and STs making up over 70% of its population. Leadership is cautious about picking a candidate who can consolidate support against Congress.

Tribal leaders like Gajendra Patel, Faggan Singh Kulaste, Sumer Singh Solanki; Dalit leaders like Lal Singh Arya and Pradeep Lariya are under consideration. Chief Minister Mohan Yadav is an OBC; hence it's unlikely an OBC will be chosen for state president's post but Kavita Patidar's name has emerged in discussions.

Gujarat's Strategic Considerations

In Gujarat, the next state president may be either a Patidar from Saurashtra or an OBC considering regional caste dynamics ahead of 2027 assembly elections. Names like Jagdish Vishwakarma (OBC), Mayank Nayak (OBC), Devusinh Chauhan (OBC), Dilip Sanghani (Patidar), Janak Patel (Patidar) are being considered.