What to expect from NSA Ajit Doval's China visit?

He is to travel to China to take part in the meeting with his counterparts from Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa

It's been more than a month now since the tensions between India and China at the border started. And the armies of both nations continue to be locked in a stand off in the Doklam region at the India-Bhutan-China tri-junction.

And such a failure to resolve the issue so far is what gives the visit of National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval, to China starting on 27 July even more importance.

Though his trip is to take part in the meeting with his counterparts from Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa, i.e., the BRICS grouping, the aim of the visit, to resolve the issue on the border, is not hidden.

The specifics of the current dispute and the history between the two countries, which include a war more than half a century ago, complicate the matter even more.

Accusations leveled by and actions of both in the Doklam area, which is a disputed territory between China and Bhutan, include attempts to construct a road in the area by the Chinese, which was stopped by Indian soldiers. In retaliation, they have been accused of destroying two bunkers of the Indian Army.

These led to claims and counter claims from both sides. India has justified its intervention based on what it called China's attempt to change the accepted status quo in the area unilaterally, to defend its strategic interests and to honour its agreement with Bhutan to safeguard the kingdoms' sovereignty. China, on the other hand, has blamed India of challenging its territorial sovereignty and interfering in a bilateral issue.

Such matters are seldom easily solved and Doval will have his hands full dealing with them, as these have the potential of keeping on burning or taking unexpected turns. Hence the visit can potentially have one of three eventualities, which are the possible logical outcomes of such a stand off.

The issue gets resolved

Given his standing in the administration, the second most powerful person in the country related to foreign affairs especially in India's neighbourhood second only to the Prime Minister, Doval will have the mandate to take serious decisions on the matter. Such authority makes it possible in face-to-face meetings to negotiate in a manner that might finally bring down the tension on the border before extinguishing them.

The best possible outcome from the visit, for both countries, will be the ideal solution of a return to the status as was almost five weeks ago, when the current standoff began. With the countries deciding to look at and resolving longstanding issues related to the border arising out of unclear demarcation of it.

This would mean the mutual and simultaneous retreat of both the armies from the area to the positions held by them earlier. Though the Chinese media will have everyone believe that this is not an option, and the Indian media has thought of it as a loss of face.

Instead, it would be a show of maturity of both nations along with their understanding of the impact of a continuation of the problem could have on each of them and their relationship, losses of which would not only be human, but economic and strategic too.

Even though such diplomatic solutions feel difficult to fathom, given all the hostility but in order to achieve this, it would have to be done. Given the history of similar disputes where a long standoff was ended following a political solution it is the most likely of the outcomes possible and would be most fruitful for everyone involved. That is, the leaders of both countries, their people and finally and most importantly, the soldiers that are a part of the heightened tension at the border.

No breakthrough

The proposition that the trip, which is the most high profile attempt at solving the issue till now being unable to yield any results, would in all probability lead to a dangerous reality with considerable volatility in the near future.

As this would witness two of the largest armies in the world pitted against one another. Even though a full deployment of forces has not been initiated by either side, things could easily get out of hand and lead to a worsening of the situation. Given that Line of Actual Control between them is around 3500 kilometre, any misstep in any different sectors or contentious points could escalate the dispute into a conflict.

Above that, if no result comes out of the talks held by Doval, it will be considered a failure on part of both sides. This would heighten tensions even more, given the stature and scale of the high-level talks. It would be seen as a failure of diplomacy leaving only a few other options such as armed conflict, aggressive strategic steps to counter each other on the international stage, trade wars etc., in case things escalate further.

While such an outcome might hurt China's economic interest heavily, it would create strategic issues for India too. Since a long standoff might lead to Pakistan increasing its cross border activity of helping terrorist to create unrest in Jammu and Kashmir, putting more strain on the country's military resources.

A continuation of the current situation would also put Modi's trip to China to take part in the BRICS conclave at risk and give rise to an uncomfortable situation.

Further escalation of the situation

The last but the most undesirable result of Doval's visit can be the rise in tensions with an escalation in military action from both sides. It is an outcome neither country can afford given the geopolitical, strategic and economic cost that it would entail. Adding to it would be the fact that both the countries are nuclear powers.

This though is also the most unlikely of all outcomes given what is at stake. The tension between two Asian giants hold in the balance not only the stability of two countries in the south of the continent but also has the potential of destabilising the entire world. As any conflict may divide it into camps given the standing of the two countries.

In this possible outcome too, the potential conflict cannot be seen in isolation. India's tense relationship with Pakistan will also be required to be taken into account. The beginning of any conflict with China would in all probability also see Pakistan launching an offensive, either direct or indirect. This would be a difficult situation for India and could cause major loss.

As for China such an outcome would undermine its ambitions of challenging US' status of a superpower and the country's economic interests all over the world as well as its ambitious project like One Belt One Road, which it sees as the modern day Silk Route through which it wants to be the Trade hub of the world.

An all out conflict with a country like India, with its own military and economic might, as well as it being situated in the area where its projects and plans are based out of would jeopardise such goals of China.

Strategic realities, not the media will decide the outcome

Based on the reporting on the current stand off seen in both countries, state owned or supported media in China and private channels in India, if it was up to the media both the countries would be at war by now.

The media of both the nations have levelled accusations and counter accusations at the other country for overstepping the previously held position on the matter and have been egged on by rash statements by those in power in both countries.

These have included sharp comments by Defence Minister, Arun Jaitley, who reminded the Chinese that India had changed from the time of the 1962 war between the two nations that witnessed India suffer a loss. This was countered in a similar tone by the other side which, even accusing India's External Affairs Minister, Sushma Swaraj, of lying when she talked about the issue in Parliament.

It is not hard to imagine that such a slinging match must not have helped whatever diplomatic channels might be working in the background to end the situation at the border till now. All such claims and counter claims will have to be put aside and the rhetoric would need to be cut down. Only then can such a resolution be attained.

Doval's decisions would need to be based on ground realities of what a possible conflict would mean and cost, and it would be worth the result, no matter what the media and the public of the country want.

OneIndia News