West Bengal Exit Polls 2026: Four Surveys Give Edge To BJP, Only One Predicts TMC’s Return To Power

The second and final phase of voting for the West Bengal Assembly Elections 2026 ended on Wednesday, marking the close of a high-energy and closely watched political contest. With polling complete, several exit polls have been released, offering early predictions about who may form the next government in the state.

Most surveys suggest an advantage for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), while the ruling All India Trinamool Congress (TMC), led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, could face a tough challenge. However, not all predictions agree, making the final outcome uncertain and highly anticipated.

What Different Exit Polls Predict

Several polling agencies have released their estimates, and while most point towards a BJP lead, one survey presents a completely different picture.

Majority of Polls Show BJP Ahead

• Matrize predicts the BJP could win between 146 and 161 seats, while TMC may secure 125 to 140 seats. Others could get 6 to 10 seats.
• P-MARQ gives the BJP a stronger edge, estimating 150 to 175 seats, with TMC at 118 to 138 seats and Others at 2 to 6 seats.
• Poll Diary forecasts 142 to 171 seats for BJP and 99 to 127 seats for TMC. Others may win 5 to 9 seats.
• Chanakya Strategies also predicts a BJP victory, giving it 150 to 160 seats, while TMC may get 130 to 140 seats. Others could secure 6 to 10 seats.

These projections suggest that the BJP may be in a strong position to challenge the ruling party and possibly form the next government.

A Different View: TMC May Still Retain Power

In contrast, People's Pulse exit poll tells a different story. According to its estimates:

• TMC could win 177 to 187 seats, comfortably crossing the majority mark
• BJP may secure only 95 to 100 seats
• Others could get 1 to 4 seats

This sharp difference highlights how unpredictable the election outcome remains.

Poll of Polls: A Neck-and-Neck Battle

When all five exit polls are averaged, the picture becomes much tighter:

• BJP: 141 to 149 seats
• TMC: 134 to 142 seats
• Others: 4 to 8 seats

These numbers point to a very close contest where even a small shift in votes could change the final result. Neither side appears to have a clear and decisive lead.
High Voter Turnout Across the State

The elections saw strong participation from voters across West Bengal. By the end of polling:

• Overall turnout reached around 90%, showing high public interest
• Purba Bardhaman recorded the highest turnout at 92.46%
• Other districts like Hooghly (90.34%), Nadia (90.28%), and Howrah (89.44%) also saw heavy voting
• North and South 24 Parganas reported turnout close to 90%

The high turnout reflects strong voter engagement and suggests that the electorate was highly motivated to influence the outcome.

What Happens Next?

With voting now complete, all eyes are on the counting day scheduled for May 4. Exit polls give an early indication, but they are not always accurate.

The final results will decide whether the BJP can make a major breakthrough in West Bengal politics or if Mamata Banerjee and the TMC will retain power once again.

The West Bengal Assembly Elections 2026 have ended on a dramatic note, with exit polls offering mixed signals. While most surveys favour the BJP, at least one predicts a strong comeback for the TMC. The close margins in the "Poll of Polls" suggest that the result could go either way.

As the state waits for the official results, one thing is clear - West Bengal has witnessed one of its most competitive elections in recent years.