UP Bypolls Exit Polls 2024: BJP Expected to Win Big, Voter Turnout Below 60%

On a recent Wednesday in Kanpur during the Sishamau Assembly constituency bypoll, voters turned out to cast their votes, marking the conclusion of the voting process for nine seats in Uttar Pradesh (UP). According to exit polls from JVC and Matrize, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is anticipated to secure victory in approximately six to seven of these seats. This leaves the Samajwadi Party (SP), which has received backing from the Congress, poised to capture the remaining two to three seats. The Congress, showing solidarity with the Akhilesh Yadav-led SP, abstained from contesting in any of the seats.

The Matrize exit polls have predicted a strong showing for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), suggesting they are likely to win seven seats, with the SP leading in two. Similarly, JVC's exit poll also supports the BJP's dominance, projecting wins in six out of the nine contested seats. This indicates a potentially significant success for the BJP in the UP bypolls.

Despite a sluggish start, voting pace in the UP Legislative Assembly bypolls picked up. However, the overall voter turnout failed to surpass the 60 percent threshold. Ghaziabad, for example, recorded a mere 33 percent voting rate, a figure reported by PTI. This turnout is in stark contrast to the 61.03 percent overall voter turnout seen in the 2022 Assembly polls. Among the constituencies, Katehari, Khair, Kundarki, Karhal, Majhawan, Meerapur, Phulpur, and Sisamau all reported turnout rates below 60 percent by 5 pm, as per Election Commission data.

In a broader perspective, the 15 Assembly seats across UP, Punjab, Kerala, and Uttarakhand that were up for grabs have seen voter turnouts just crossing the 50-percent mark on average. This showcases a lukewarm voter engagement across multiple states. Allegations of polling irregularities further marred the voting process. Accusations against police officials for allegedly misusing government machinery and preventing electors from voting led to disciplinary action. According to PTI, five police personnel were suspended for not adhering to the Election Commission's guidelines, with several others removed from poll duty in UP.