Stretching the election campaign to the last mile – Impact of a multi phase elections

For quite some time now, we have noticed multiple rounds of polling in both Lok Sabha elections and the state assembly elections in the larger states. Uttar Pradesh has a seven phase election and West Bengal too had a seven phase assembly poll last year. Earlier, Bihar had a three phase poll for the state assembly. In 2019, we had a seven phase Lok Sabha polls too. The multiple phase election has been a trend for some time now. The Election Commission has consistently maintained that a multiple phase poll is important to ensure a free and fair poll. It allows for providing security at different polling booths and also ensures a better focus on election management.

A multi-phase poll has important advantages for political parties too. They are able to calibrate their election campaign to the requirements of different phases. Parties and leaders have often altered their strategy and changed the thrust of their campaign to suit the areas in which the polls are due. It has also allowed them to move their poll strategists from place to place and more importantly expanded the bandwidth of campaign for key political leaders. This time around too, in the polls to the five state assemblies it is clear that political parties have been strategizing to use the time available to the best advantage. On each of the polling days, leading campaigners of all political parties have been holding day long mega-events in places where the campaign is still on. A lot of this is beamed live on television and is publicity in places which have voting scheduled on that day.

It is also a fact that some political parties, which do not have the fiscal and human resources at their command, are not able to take advantage of an extended campaign time, a visible by-product of multi-phase elections. The question one needs to address is whether this gives a distinctive advantage to some political players in an election.

There is another point which merits consideration. Does a multi-phase election lead to voter fatigue?

The campaign in larger states is spread over a long period of time given the six or seven phases of elections. More interestingly, does a sustained campaign, impact electoral outcomes especially in the areas that go to the polls in the later phases? The CSDS-Lokniti Post Poll Survey analysis in the recent West Bengal and Bihar state assembly elections makes for an interesting analysis. Respondents were asked when did they finally make up your mind about whom to vote for - on the day of voting, a day or two before voting day, during the campaign, after announcement of candidates or before the campaign started.

Last time around West Bengal had seven phases of polling. The Data from the West Bengal post poll survey indicates some interesting trends:

Please note the row does not add up to 100 as those who did not respond are not mentioned

The data for the fourth phase onwards indicates clearly the impact of the campaign. In the fourth and seventh phase more than one thirds of the respondents said that they decided on the day of voting whom to cast their vote for. In the sixth phase more than one fourths of the respondents stated that they took the decision on the day of voting. If we were to combine those who took the decision during the campaign and on the day of the voting, it is clear that in phase four and seven, close to half the respondents took the decision on whom to vote for during this phase. One thirds of the respondents in phase five and six said that they took this decision once the campaign began.

This explains why in the latter phases of polling, political parties and their leaders make an extra effort to increase the pace of their campaign and bring in their star campaigners in these phases. It is clear there are several voters who take the decision on whom to vote very late in the day. The current Uttar Pradesh election is a case in point.

(Dr. Sandeep Shastri is a keen student of Indian politics. Dr Shastri is a researcher on politics for the last four decades)

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of OneIndia and OneIndia does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.