Sonia Gandhi is back in the driver's seat: Can opposition unite for Prez polls?

The BJP and its allies have a vote value of 5.32 lakh in the electoral college. This is short by 17,500 of the half way mark.

Congress president Sonia Gandhi is back in the driving seat and this time steering a combined opposition to put up a candidate for the Presidential elections to be held in July. The Presidential elections would be a real test for the opposition which feels the only way to beat the BJP is to stay united and fight together.

Scores of leaders have been meeting with Sonia and discussing the Presidential polls. Nitish Kumar, Lalu Prasad Yadav, Sitaram Yechury among others have called on Sonia to discuss the strategy for the July elections.

A real big test:

The opposition after successive defeats in the recent assembly elections had decided to form a grand alliance to take on the BJP in the 2019 elections. The opposition parties led by the Congress feels that the only way to beat the BJP in 2019 is by fighting the elections together.

For the opposition to put up a united fight it would first need to agree on a common agenda. While the larger agenda would be to beat the BJP, there are a host of other factors and issues that the opposition would need to factor in before taking on the BJP.
The first real test would be the elections to the post of President. While for now, the opposition looks united, it is yet to be seen whether it can put up a common candidate.

There is no indication who the opposition would choose. West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee had recently said that if the BJP does not choose L K Advani, then they would be ready to back him. However, Advani's name may not be considered now following the Supreme Court's verdict which had ordered him to face trial in the Babri Masjid demolition case.

The BJP following its impressive wins in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand inched closer towards the numbers it needed to elect a president of its choice. It would however still need the support of either the AIADMK or BJD to elect its candidate.

What the BJP needs:

The BJP and its allies have a vote value of 5.32 lakh in the electoral college. This is short by 17,500 of the half way mark. If the BJP gets the support of the BJD and the AIADMK, then the vote value would go up to 6,28,195. The vote value of 5,49,442 is enough to elect the President in the electoral college. The electoral college comprises 4,896 legislators. This includes the 776 Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha members and 4,120 MLAs. The nominated members and the MLCs are not eligible to vote.

The vote value of each LS and RS member is 708. The vote value of the MLA depends on the population of the state. The vote value of an MLA is equivalent to the population of the state divided by the number of elected legislators divided, yet again, by 1,000. In UP the vote value of an MLA is the highest. It is at 209. The lowest vote value is from Sikkim at 7.

Currently, the BJP and its allies have a vote value of 5,31,954. The BJP would need 17,488 and it would depend on the BJD and AIADMK for the same. The vote value of 134 AIADMK MLAs is 23,584. The vote value of 50 AIADMK MPs is 35,400. The BJD MLAs have a vote value of 17,433 while its 28 MLAs have a vote value of 19,824.

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