Rajasthan Pre-Poll Survey: What Voters Care About And How Parties Fare

A pre-poll survey conducted by NDTV-CSDS Lokniti in the lead-up to the 2023 Rajasthan Assembly election reveals intriguing insights. The survey, conducted across 30 of Rajasthan's 200 Assembly constituencies, found that while the ruling Congress has a high approval rating for its performance in certain areas such as state-run schools and hospitals, there are concerns about the government's handling of corruption, price hikes, and unemployment.

On the macro level, the survey found that 43 per cent of voters are "fully satisfied" with the Gehlot government, with an additional 28 per cent reporting "somewhat satisfied." This is a positive sign for the Congress, considering that only 10 per cent of voters expressed "somewhat dissatisfaction" and 14 per cent expressed "full dissatisfaction." However, the 'Modi factor,' which has been a significant force in previous elections, persists.

In a head-to-head comparison between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, the Prime Minister secures a narrow lead, with 37 per cent of respondents favoring him compared to 32 per cent for Gehlot. The crucial group to watch consists of the 20 per cent who opted for "both."

The split between the party and the candidate, which reflects the dilemma faced by political parties in relying on prominent figures versus the merits of their candidates, remains evenly divided. Thirty-one percent of respondents emphasize the party's importance, while 30% emphasize the candidate's. Notably, PM Modi and Chief Minister Gehlot each garner 13 per cent support.

Moreover, only 3 per cent of voters appear swayed by Congress MP Rahul Gandhi, whose "Bharat Jodo Yatra" seemingly did not significantly benefit his party, as reported by only 28% of respondents.

While the Gehlot government receives positive evaluations across various areas, such as government-run schools and hospitals, electricity and water supply, roads, and law and order, there is a caveat. In specific aspects, namely roads, women's safety, and law and order, the Congress holds only a narrow margin, with leads of 2%, 7%, and 2%, respectively.

Unemployment and price inflation emerge as the two primary concerns among voters, at 21% and 20%, respectively. Poverty and the lack of overall development follow at 15% and 13%, respectively. Surprisingly, corruption is a minor concern, with just 7% of respondents highlighting it.

There is a consensus that price inflation, unemployment, and corruption have worsened during the five years of Congress rule, which poses a challenge for Chief Minister Gehlot. Only 31% of voters believe that industrial development in the state has progressed during this time.

In the 'development vote' category, the BJP leads with 48 per cent compared to the Congress' 34 per cent The BJP is also favored as the party of choice to address the cost of living crisis and generate employment, with 48 per cent and 44 per cent support, respectively.

Notably, "cow protection" resonates with 76 per cent of respondents as a more significant issue than reservations for marginalised or backward communities.

Regarding caste, class, and religion, the Congress maintains a substantial lead over the BJP among Muslim voters, with 86 per cent compared to 9 per cent. They also enjoy an eight-point advantage among Jat voters. However, the BJP holds an edge among Rajputs and backward communities, while the Dalit vote is too close to call.

On the demographic front, women's safety appears to influence voting preferences, with 45 per cent of women likely to vote for the BJP versus 39 per cent for the Congress. Among men, the split favors the BJP, with a 43-41 margin.

In the context of who should be the Chief Minister, Mr. Gehlot enjoys a comfortable lead with 27 per cent, followed by his predecessor, the BJP's Vasundhara Raje, with 14 per cent. Notably, 15 per cent are open to any candidate from the BJP, suggesting a potential decline in Ms. Raje's status as the party's most influential state leader.

It must be noted that the pre-poll survey results indicate a slight advantage for the BJP in a state that has consistently voted out the incumbent party in every election since 1993, when the BJP was re-elected.