Monsoon Update 2024: Kerala Braces For Heavy Rains, Above-Normal Rainfall Predicted For India

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced that conditions are increasingly favorable for the onset of the Southwest Monsoon over Kerala and its advancement into parts of the Northeastern states within the next three to four days. As of May 28, 2024, the monsoon has progressed into additional areas of the South Arabian Sea and the Maldives region.

The IMD expects these favorable conditions to continue, facilitating the further advance of the Southwest Monsoon into more areas of the South Arabian Sea, the remaining parts of the Maldives and Comorin region, parts of the Lakshadweep area, Kerala, additional areas of the Southwest and Central Bay of Bengal, the Northeast Bay of Bengal, and parts of the Northeastern states over the next few days.

Heavy Rains Batter Kerala

After a brief lull, heavy rains accompanied by gusty winds disrupted normal life across several parts of Kerala on Tuesday. In Kochi and its surrounding areas, continuous downpours since early morning led to the submersion of many narrow lanes and busy roads. Flooded streets forced people to remain indoors in various parts of the port city, causing vehicles to move at a snail's pace on highways. The incessant rain also impacted normal life in the Kakkanad-Infopark and Aluva-Edappally areas due to severe waterlogging. Both urban and rural areas of Thiruvananthapuram district experienced heavy rains since Monday night.

The IMD's latest update predicts moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms and gusty winds up to 40 kmph in parts of Ernakulam and Kozhikode districts on Tuesday. Additionally, moderate rainfall is expected in Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, Kottayam, Idukki, Thrissur, and Malappuram districts. Light, isolated rainfall is forecasted for Palakkad and Kannur districts.

IMD Issues Rainfall Warning

A cyclonic circulation currently situated over south Tamil Nadu and its neighboring regions in the middle tropospheric levels will lead to fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 kmph) over Kerala, Mahe, Lakshadweep, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. There will also be isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Rayalaseema, and Karnataka over the next seven days.

Isolated heavy rainfall is expected over Kerala and Mahe for the next five days, Lakshadweep on May 28 and 29, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on May 31 and June 1, 2024. Kerala and Mahe may also experience very heavy rainfall on May 29 and 30, with extremely heavy falls anticipated on May 28, 2024.

IMD's Monsoon Forecast

The IMD forecasts seasonal rainfall across the country to be 106% of the long-period average (LPA), with a model error margin of 4%, indicating above-normal rainfall is likely over the country as a whole during the monsoon season from June to September 2024. Specifically, Central India and South Peninsular India are expected to receive above-normal rainfall (>106% of LPA), while Northwest India is forecasted to have normal rainfall (92-108% of LPA), and Northeast India is likely to experience below-normal rainfall (

Above-normal rainfall is anticipated for most parts of the country, except for many areas in the northern part of Northwest India, Northeast India, and the eastern part of Central India and adjacent areas of East India, where below-normal to normal rainfall is expected. For June 2024, normal rainfall (92-108% of LPA) is forecasted for the country as a whole. Above-normal monthly rainfall is likely over most areas of the South Peninsula, adjoining areas of Central India, and isolated areas of Northwest and Northeast India. Conversely, below-normal rainfall is anticipated in many northern and eastern parts of Northwest India, the eastern part of Central India, and some areas of Northeast India and the southeastern part of the South Peninsula.