Lok Sabha Pre-Poll Survey 2024: BJP Set To Repeat 2019 Feat In Several Hindi Heartland States?

As the Lok Sabha elections approach, News18's Mega Opinion Poll forecasts a record-breaking mandate for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh and a replication of its 2019 success in several Hindi heartland states.

Released in two parts on March 13 and 14, the Mega Opinion Poll spans 21 states and 518 Lok Sabha constituencies, making it India's largest survey of its kind.

The projections suggest a landslide victory for the NDA, expected to secure 174 out of 242 seats covered on Day 1, with the opposition bloc INDIA projected to win 61 seats, leaving 7 seats for other parties.

Notably, in the 7 Hindi heartland states surveyed on Day 1, the BJP's strike rate in 2024 is expected to reach 92 per cent, surpassing its 2019 performance of 89.4 per cent in the same region.

Here's a breakdown of Part 1 of the News18 Mega Opinion Poll:

Uttar Pradesh:

The BJP-led NDA is poised to sweep the crucial political state, projected to win an unprecedented 77 out of 80 seats, with the INDIA alliance trailing with only 2 seats.

Bihar:

In Bihar, the BJP-JD(U) alliance is forecasted to secure 38 out of 40 seats, while the INDIA bloc is expected to win just 2 seats, mirroring the 2019 results.

Tamil Nadu:

The DMK-Congress alliance is anticipated to secure 30 out of 39 seats in Tamil Nadu, with the BJP projected to win 5 seats, marking its efforts to expand its southern footprint.

Madhya Pradesh:

The BJP is expected to repeat its 2019 performance in Madhya Pradesh, winning 28 out of 29 seats, while Congress is forecasted to secure just 1 seat.

Kerala:

The Congress-led UDF is predicted to win 14 out of 20 seats in Kerala, with the ruling LDF expected to secure 4 seats.

Punjab:

In Punjab, Congress is projected to win 7 out of 13 seats, with BJP-led NDA and AAP expected to secure 3 and 1 seat respectively.

Delhi, Haryana, and Himachal Pradesh:

The BJP is set for a clean sweep in Delhi, Haryana, and Himachal Pradesh, repeating its 2019 success in these northern states.

The Congress government in Himachal Pradesh faces uncertainty after recent cross-voting in the Rajya Sabha polls, as indicated by the opinion poll results.