Lok Sabha Election Predictions: BJP Will Win 295-305 Seats, Claims American Political Scientist

The ruling BJP will come to power again in 2024, said American political scientist and global political risk consultant Ian Bremmer.

Speaking to NDTV Profit, he said that the BJP will win 295-305 seats in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections.

The founder of the Eurasia Group, a risk and research consulting firm said that from a global political perspective, the Indian general election is "the only thing that looks stable and consistent." He added that "everything else, including the United States election due in November, is problematic."

"... We have an enormous amount of macro-level geopolitical uncertainty and the future of globalisation is not going the way companies want it to. Politics is inserting itself into the global marketplace... wars, US-China relations, and the US election are all a big part of that," he added.

He claimed, "All of these not being managed well and these pressures are more negative. In fact, the only thing that looks stable and consistent, politically, is the India election. Everything else looks problematic."

In 2014, the BJP emerged victorious with 282 seats, and in 2019, it secured 303 seats. While earlier predictions from many pollsters indicated that the saffron party would win the elections with a majority, recent reports suggest that the ruling party might lose several seats and may not cross the crucial 272-seat threshold.

However, Bremmer noted that his interest is not in the numbers. "My interest is that of all the elections in the world (which includes polls in the European Union and, possibly, a national election in the United Kingdom) India, which has the largest democracy, has the smoothest transition. There is not lot of uncertainty about the Indian political system" he added.

He also praised "free and fair, and transparent" Indian electoral process.

"Modi is almost certainly going to win a third term on the back of pretty strong economic performance and consistent reform (and) that, in the grand scheme, is a very stabilising message."

Talking about India's economic future, he stated, "The world has seen that India has underperformed for decades. India has incredible demographic weight and very strong intellectual capital... so many American CEOs come from India. Yet India, as an economy, underperformed."

"Now we see growth picking up. We see India becoming the fourth largest economy in the world, likely next year, and the third largest probably by 2028. But we also see India becoming more powerful in terms of defining its friendship with rest of the world."