Insights: Why EAC-PM Released Its Population Study During Elections?

What Is In The Study Shared By EAC-PM?

In a recent study conducted by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM), an independent body tasked with advising the Government of India and the Prime Minister on economic and related matters, significant demographic shifts in the population of India have been revealed. The study analysed data spanning from 1950 to 2015.

According to the findings, the population share of the majority religion in India, Hindus, experienced a notable decline of 7.8 per cent during the aforementioned period. In contrast, the share of minority religious groups such as Muslims, Christians, Sikhs, and Buddhists, increased. However, the study also noted a decrease in the population share of Jains and Parsis.

Between 1950 and 2015, the Muslim population share in India saw a substantial surge, increasing by 43.15 per cent. Christians experienced a comparatively modest increase of 5.38 per cent, Sikhs witnessed a rise of 6.58 per cent, and Buddhists also observed a slight increase. It's noteworthy that despite the rise in the share of other minority groups, the rise in the share of the Muslim community is in limelight.

According to the study, the share of Hindus in India's population has experienced a decline from 84 per cent in 1950 to 78 per cent in 2015. In contrast, the proportion of Muslims has witnessed a notable increase from 9.84 per cent to 14.09 per cent during the same period.

The study further reveals that this is a global trend. Several countries, including Australia, China, Canada, New Zealand, and certain East African nations, see a decline in the majority community's share of the population and the share has been more pronounced than in India. On a global scale, the study reveals that the share of majority religious denominations in 167 countries has, on average, decreased by 22 per cent from 1950 to 2015. This indicates a substantial demographic transformation occurring worldwide over the past decades.

Why The Study Is Revealed Amid Elections?

It is interesting to note that the data is shared when India is going through the 18th Lok Sabha election phases. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are using this data to show themselves as saviours of the Hindu community. They also portray that protecting Hindus means protecting them from Muslims. According to them, the Hindu majority face danger as the opposition Congress party is conspiring with the Muslim community to rob them of their wealth and entitlements.

During an election rally in Rajasthan, PM Modi warned the crowd that if the opposition were to come into power, they would allegedly redistribute wealth from Hindus to those "who have more children," a statement widely interpreted as referring to the Muslim community.

In another campaign event in Rajasthan, PM Modi raised concerns about the Congress party's alleged intentions to give away reservations or quotas in education, employment, and government schemes for backward classes, scheduled castes, and tribal people to the Muslims. This tactic appeared to be aimed at instilling fear among the backward and Dalit sections of the Hindu electorate, potentially influencing their voting preferences in favour of the BJP.

A recent remark by Rashtriya Janata Dal's President, Lalu Prasad Yadav, advocating for 'poora' (complete) reservation for Muslims ignited the flame. PM Modi responded strongly to this remark, citing it as evidence to support his claim that the Congress and INDIA Bloc may allocate reservation benefits to the Muslim community.

During a rally in Madhya Pradesh's Dhar, PM Modi expressed concerns over what he perceives as a potential shift of reservation benefits from SC, ST, and OBC to Muslims. PM Modi's remarks alluded to the notion of Muslims having larger families, stating, "We are five, ours are 25," which was interpreted as a reference to Muslim men marrying four times and having more children.

The ongoing election campaign has taken a concerning turn as PM Modi is framing the election as a battle between Hindus and Muslims. Analysts suggest that the BJP's aggressive rhetoric stems from a sense of desperation following underwhelming support in the initial phase of the elections. In response, the party appears to be resorting to its traditional strategy of Hindu polarisation, stoking fears of a perceived Muslim takeover of India.

The release of demographic data at this juncture is viewed by some as a calculated move to galvanise support for the BJP in the remaining phases of the election. By leveraging fears of demographic change and emphasising Hindu identity, the party aims to mobilise voters and secure victory in the upcoming phases of the election.

Is This Happening For The First Time?

The practice of using religion in election campaigns is not new in India, but it is regulated by laws such as the People's Representative Act.

According to this law, appeals by candidates or any other person, with the consent of a candidate, to vote or refrain from voting based on religion, race, caste, community, or language, are considered corrupt electoral practices. Violators of this provision can face severe consequences, including up to six years in jail.

The Act's provisions have been enforced in the past, leading to notable cases such as the six-year election ban imposed in 1999 on Bal Thackeray, the founder of the Shiv Sena party, for his involvement in communal incitement.

Why ECI Is Silent?

The Election Commission of India (ECI) has faced criticism for its apparent inaction on the matter. The ECI's compromised status may be a key factor behind its silence, as per the observers. In December, the BJP succeeded in passing legislation in parliament that altered the composition of the selection committee responsible for appointing election commissioners. Previously, the Chief Justice of India (CJI) was part of this committee, alongside the Prime Minister and the leader of the opposition. However, under the new legislation, the CJI has been replaced with a minister selected by the Prime Minister.

This legislative change has raised concerns about the ECI's independence, with critics arguing that it has transformed the commission into a government-controlled entity. Since then, the ECI has been accused of exhibiting a bias in its actions, issuing notices to opposition leaders while failing to take action against BJP leaders for alleged violations.

As the elections progress, concerns persist over the ECI's ability to fulfil its mandate impartially and ensure fair and transparent elections in India.