India Saw 11.9 Lakh Excess Covid Deaths In 2020, Reveals Study On Pandemic's First Year

A new study has estimated that India recorded 11.9 lakh excess Covid-19 deaths in 2020, a figure eight times higher than the official count.

This research, led by scholars from the University of Oxford and City University of New York, highlights the pandemic's severe impact on marginalised communities, including Adivasis, Dalits, and Muslims, with women suffering more than men.

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The study found major declines in life expectancy across different social groups. Muslims experienced the largest decline, with life expectancy dropping by 5.4 years, followed by the Scheduled Tribe (4.1 years) and Scheduled Caste (2.7 years) populations.

Upper caste Hindus and OBCs (Other Backward Classes) lost 1.3 years. Overall, life expectancy for females decreased by 3.1 years and for males by 2.1 years, resulting in an overall decline of 2.6 years, according to a Deccan Herald report.

Sangita Vyas, an economist at City University, New York, noted, "Life expectancy declines in India were larger and had a younger age profile than in high-income countries. In contrast to global patterns, females in India experienced a life expectancy decline that was one year larger than losses for males. Also, marginalised social groups experienced greater declines than the most privileged social group."

NITI Aayog Member (Health) Vinod Paul slammed the study, citing "serious methodological flaws."

Paul stated that India's civil registration system (CRS) registered over 99% of all deaths, showing 474,000 excess deaths in 2020 compared to 2019.

He argued, "The estimate of 11.9 lakh excess deaths concluded in the study is untenable and unacceptable."

The study, published in Science Advances, suggests that the mortality impact in India was akin to or greater than that experienced by marginalised groups in the USA, such as Blacks, Hispanics, and Native Americans.

This research comes after the World Health Organization's (WHO) report estimating 4.74 million excess deaths in India during 2020 and 2021.

Vyas defended her team's findings, stating, "Very little has been known about the social gradient of the pandemic in India. Regardless of how the study is received, it is important to document these facts for researchers, civil society, and the broader public. This might be helpful for routine mortality surveillance and future mortality crises."