Hasanpur Assembly Constituency: Can RJD Retain The Seat After Replacing Tej Pratap Yadav?

The RJD has fielded Mala Pushpam from the Hasanpur Constituency in the Bihar Assembly elections. She has replaced Tej Pratap, brother of Mahagathbandhan's Chief Ministerial candidate Tejashwi Yadav.

The Hasanpur assembly constituency in Samastipur district is part of the Khagaria Lok Sabha constituency. In the 2020 election, Tej Pratap Yadav (RJD) secured 80,991 votes and emerged victorious with a margin of about 21,139 votes over his closest opponent.

That election underscored the strength of RJD and the Yadav-Muslim vote combination in this area. In earlier cycles, the seat had switched hands between JD(U) and RJD.

Demographically, Hasanpur has a strong presence of Yadavs and Muslims, which has worked as a social-block base for RJD.

On the other hand, this seat has been allotted to the JDU as per the seat-sharing alliance with the BJP. Raj Kumar Ray is the NDA candidate.

Key factors

• The RJD's 2020 win gives the opposition a structural "base" in this seat.
• However, the difference now is that it's not Tej Pratap contesting; instead, Mala Pushpam is the RJD nominee. This means the personal-profile advantage is reduced.
• On the NDA side, Raj Kumar Ray brings local recognition and the backing of alliance machinery; if NDA can mobilise in non-Yadav, non-Muslim votes and improve turnout, they have a pathway. In 2020, Raj Kumar Ray had lost to Tej Pratap and now aiming to take revenge over his defeat in the last election.
• Vote-splitting by smaller parties or independents could swing the margin.

Edge: Leaning to Mahagathbandhan but not guaranteed. If RJD's ground game holds and voter turnout among Yadav-Muslim remains strong, Mala Pushpam can retain it. But a motivated NDA campaign could turn it.