Exit Poll 2024 Result: BJP vs INDIA; What Is The Public Mood?

India is currently in the final phase of voting, marking the culmination of an election process that began in April. In this last phase, voters are deciding the fate of 904 candidates competing for 57 seats.

The election has been conducted in six phases prior to this, held on April 19, April 26, May 7, May 13, May 20, and May 25. Vote counting and announcement of results are scheduled for June 4.

At the heart of this election is a contest between two major alliances: the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), spearheaded by the main opposition party, the Indian National Congress.

What Experts Say On The Public Mood?

In a discussion held by experts at NDTV, it was revealed that the public mood ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha Election remains uncertain, despite expectations of a majority win for the BJP. Experts anticipate tough battles, even in traditional BJP strongholds in the north, but predict gains for the ruling party in non-BJP states like Telangana, Odisha, and Bengal.

The 2024 Lok Sabha election has defied trends of the past decade, with an absence of any noticeable pro-government wave or widespread public anger against the incumbent party. Instead, there's a prevailing sense of discontent, which the Opposition has failed to leverage.

Despite initial campaigning on national issues, the BJP has found itself responding to the Opposition's agenda, including allegations of potential changes to the constitution.

Senior journalist and political expert Neerja Chowdhury described this election as "complex" and "difficult to decode." While there may not be a visible "Modi wave," there are undecided voters focused on local issues. However, merely putting up a fight doesn't guarantee victory for the Opposition.

Political strategist Amitabh Tiwari highlighted the emotional aspect of voting, emphasizing the importance of hope versus anger. Converting discontent into anger requires a strong political movement, which has been lacking from the Opposition.

Prashant Kishor, an election strategist shared similar views with the Hindustan Times that there was neither significant dissatisfaction with the incumbent BJP government nor a strong demand for an alternative in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Public Mood In Non-BJP States

The BJP is aiming for 370 seats in the ongoing election. The party has given its NDA allies a target of 30-plus seats, which would take the ruling alliance's tally to over 400.

Key non-BJP states like Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana are expected to play crucial roles in determining the BJP's final seat count. While the BJP may lose some seats in certain regions, gains from non-BJP states are expected to compensate.

Kishor also suggested a potential increase in the BJP's seat tally and vote share in eastern and southern states. He highlighted the party's efforts to strengthen its presence in Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu, anticipating gains due to relative unfamiliarity with the BJP in these areas.

The outcomes in states like Bengal and Maharashtra are uncertain, with alliances potentially impacting the BJP's performance.

Public Mood On 400 Seats

The 400-seat target set by the BJP is seen more as an "aspiration" to motivate voters rather than a concrete goal, according to experts at NDTV.

On the other hand, Kishor predicts that the BJP may secure around 303 seats, similar to its 2019 tally, or slightly more but for a different reason. "In my assessment, the BJP is poised to maintain or slightly improve its seat count. There's not expected to be a significant shift in seats in western and northern India. However, the party has garnered substantial support from regions in the east and south," Kishor stated in an interview with The Print.

Conclusion

The campaigning for the final phase, which ended on May 30, saw ruling BJP leaders, led by PM Modi, accusing the Congress and the INDIA opposition bloc of corruption, anti-Hindu sentiments, and dynastic politics.

Opposition parties have countered, claiming the BJP is anti-farmer, anti-youth, and would amend or scrap the Constitution if elected.

Today's voting marks the culmination of the second-longest polling process. According to Election Commission (EC) guidelines, exit poll data and results can be broadcast by television channels and news outlets after 6:30 PM.

The EC has urged voters to turn out in higher numbers and vote responsibly and proudly. Turnout in the first six phases of the general election ranged from 62.2 per cent to 69.16 per cent.