Dalit leader Chandrashekhar and Shivpal Yadav to impact Lok Sabha elections in UP

New Delhi, Dec 22: Moves of former Uttar Pradesh chief minister and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati is not only being watched by her prospective ally and Samajwadi Party (SP) chief and another former chief minister Akhilesh Yadav but also by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as alliance between these two parties will adversely impact the party.

But some other smaller groups have started mushrooming in the state with certain degree of impact on certain section that might make a big dent into the BSP and the SP vote shares. Actually there is a section of political analysts that feels the BJP will be routed if alliance between the SP and the BSP materialises.

Reportedly the BSP has already finalised around 43 names. But with the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and the Congress joining the alliance, the BJP will not have any other hope except drawing a zero in Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh.

Just imagine the situation when Aam Aadmi Party jumped into fray against Prime Minister Narendra Modi, things became difficult for him. AAP is also going to field candidates in Uttar Pradesh. But they don't have any support base as such.

However, the SP and the BSP have a huge support base in Uttar Pradesh which was proved with the defeat of the BJP candidates not only in Gorakhpur which is the pocket borough of chief minister Yogi Adityanath but also Phoolpur that was vacated by deputy chief minister Keshav Prasad Maurya. Kairana constituency fell vacant due to demise of Hukum Singh but it has gone to RLD in the alliance.

The BSP has not been able to win even a single Lok Sabha seat in 2014 but it managed to get 19.77 per cent votes while the SP got 22.35 per cent votes and RLD 0.86 per cent. They jointly managed 43.08 per cent votes which was more than the 42.63 per cent of the BJP in 2014.

Similarly in 2017 Assembly elections, these political parties managed to get 44.05 per cent with the BSP getting 22.23 votes and SP 21.82 per cent while the BJP got 39.67 per cent. The Congress managed to get 6.25 per cent votes. So if they are united, they will trouble the BJP the most in the state.

Now, lots of water have flown down the Ganga and Yamuna in UP since then, Shivpal Yadav has split from the Samajwadi Party and a new Dalit youth icon has emerged into horizon of Uttar Pradesh that is Chandrashekhar Azad. The BSP that was being considered as the single vote bank but with the emergence of Chandrashekhar has created a flutter in the community especially in youth youths. He is reportedly in tough with leaders like Jignesh Mevani, Alpesh Thakor and Hardik Patel.

The impact is visible even in the countryside of Uttar Pradesh where slogans identifying with the Dalit pride can be seen and heard all around. If he sides with anyone or fields candidate, he will spoil the game of Mayawati in the state. The similar damage will be done to the Samajwadi Party by the political party launched by Shivpal Yadav. Then there is a Jansatta Party launched by Kunda MLA Raghuraj Pratap aka Raja Bhaiya. All these parties will have there definite impact in the Lok Sabha elections of Uttar Pradesh.

While looking at the vote share of any particular party, the fact is ignored that vote bank of particular community that is fielded in any constituency also goes into the account of the party. So 19.77 per cent to the BSP and 22.35 per cent votes to the SP does not have only Dalit, Yadav and Muslim votes but votes from some other communities as well. Vote transferability is another issue for every political parties. So it is too early to judge anything about UP elections.