Cyclone Arnab Coming? IMD Warns Of Favourable Conditions Over Bay Of Bengal During Second Week Of May

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on May 7 indicated the possibility of an upper air cyclonic circulation or a low pressure area forming over the Bay of Bengal during the second week of May. However, the chances of it intensifying into a cyclone remain low, according to the weather agency.

In its 'North Indian Ocean Extended Range Outlook for Cyclogenesis' issued on May 7, the IMD said favourable conditions are likely to develop over the southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining west central and southeast Bay of Bengal during the second half of Week 1, which falls between May 8 and May 14.

The agency said various large scale environmental features, climatological conditions and model guidance suggest the possibility of an upper air cyclonic circulation or a low pressure area developing over the region.

As per the outlook, there is a low probability of cyclogenesis over the southwest and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal between May 13 and May 16. Cyclogenesis refers to the formation of a depression or a more intense weather system.

The IMD classified the probability as "low", meaning there is only a 1 to 33 per cent chance of the system intensifying into a depression or cyclone.

If the current low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal intensifies into a cyclonic storm, its name will be Cyclone Arnab. The name Arnab was provided by India and is the next available name on the list maintained by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the North Indian Ocean region. It is currently viewed primarily as a cyclonic circulation or a low-pressure area. It only receives the name Arnab if its wind speeds reach at least 62 km/h (34 knots), qualifying it as a "Cyclonic Storm."

According to the weather department, Week 1 covers the period from May 8 to May 14, while Week 2 extends from May 15 to May 21.

The Bay of Bengal usually witnesses the formation of weather systems during the pre monsoon season, and meteorologists continue to closely monitor developments over the region.