Opinion poll predicts clear win for Congress in Karnataka, setback for BJP

With the elections announced in the Karnataka Assembly, an opinion poll by C-Voter has projected a thumping majority for the Congress, dislodging the ruling Basavaraj Bommai government in the state.

According to ABP-CVoter opinion poll, Congress is set to win 115 to 127 seats, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will bag 68 to 80 seats, and the Janata Dal Secular will secure 23 to 35 seats.

There are five regions in Karnataka- Mumbai-Karnataka, Hyderabad-Karnataka, Central Karnataka, Coastal Karnataka and Old Mysuru Region.

Each political party has its own stronghold. For instance the JD(S) and Congress are very strong in the Old Mysuru Region, while the BJP bags most of its votes from the Coastal Karnataka region and northern parts of the state.

This is probably one of the main reasons that the state since 2004 has seen no party getting an absolute majority, except in the years 2013.

Hyderabad-Karnataka region

In the Hyderabad-Karnataka region, the BJP and the Congress are likely to 37% and 44% of the vote, respectively. The Congress is likely to otshine the BJP, winning 19 to 23 seats. BJP could bag 8-12 seats in the region.

Mumbai-Karnataka region

According to C Voter survey, Congress is expected to win 25-29 seats in the Mumbai-Karnataka region, up from the 17 it won in 2018. While, BJP, which bagged 30 seats in this region in 2018 is expected to get 21-25 seats.

Coastal Karnataka

The opinion poll predicted a major setback for the BJP in its stronghold, coastal Karnataka. The BJP is expected to receive 46% of the vote, while 41% of voters will back the Congress. A estimate of 9-13 seats for the BJP hints that it will likely be in a close race with Congress for seats. The Congress is probably going to have 8 to 12 seats.

Central Karnataka

Even in Central Karnataka, the BJP is predicted to receive 38% of the votes while 41% of the votes will back the Congress. In the 35-seat region, the BJP is likely to win 12-16 seats, while the Congress is expected to win 18-22 seats. Interestingly, JD(S) will win more than two seats in this area.

Old Mysuru region

In the Old Mysuru region, which is a Congress-JDS stronghold, the opinion poll predicted a 20% vote share for the BJP and a 36% vote share for the Congress.

That means, Congress will secure 24-28 seats and JDS will get 26-27. The BJP, which is trying its best to put up a creditable show in the Old Mysuru region where it has traditionally failed to make an impact is projected to win just 1-5.

Karnataka will vote on May 10 and the results will be declared on May 13.

In the 2018 election, BJP emerged as the single-largest party by bagging 104 seats out of 224, while the Congress won 80 seats and the JDS won 37 seats. However, Congress tied up with JD(S) to form government under HD Kumaraswamy's leadership.