OPINION: Optimism In US-China Ties Distant

US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping may be meeting in San Francisco in November. But it would be naive to be optimistic about US-China relations in the near future. The current standoff over a meeting of their foreign and defence ministers is still to be resolved for any meaningful dialogue between the two nations.

Will US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping be meeting at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders' Summit to be held in San Francisco in November this year?

Observers say indications are Presidents Biden and Xi would avail of the opportunity. The other day, US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink and Senior Director for China in the US National Security Council Sarah Beran met Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu and Director of the North American and China's Oceanic Affairs Department Yang Tao in Beijing. Their meeting went off fine. The two sides agreed to maintain open lines of communication and build on their recent high-level diplomacy. Reports suggest that Director of the Central Intelligence Agency William Burns also travelled to Beijing for some secret meetings with Chinese intelligence officials.

There has been a lot of friction between the United States and China in the recent years. Washington has been sceptical about growing ties between China and Russia, including the potential of Beijing sending direct aid to Russia in its ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

Recently, the US has accused the Chinese forces of "unsafe" and "unnecessarily aggressive" manoeuvres in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. Last week ,there was a near collision between a Chinese warship and an American Navy guided-missile destroyer in the region. The US has been concerned about China's increasing presence in these areas. In February this year, an American fighter jet downed a Chinese surveillance balloon off the coast of South Carolina.

Besides, the Biden administration has put export controls on advanced chipmaking technology to China. It has also persuaded Japan and the Netherlands to block the sale of chip equipment to China. In retaliation, Beijing has cracked down on US chipmaker Micron Technology.

But all this is unlikely to hinder the meeting between the two leaders in San Francisco. Both the Presidents are for engagement between the two nations. During a press conference at the conclusion of the Group of Seven annual leaders meeting in Hiroshima (Japan) last month, President Biden expected an imminent thaw in relations with China. Presidents Biden and Xi agreed in their first in-person meeting last November in Bali, on the sidelines of the G20 summit, to decelerate tensions and manage their competition "responsibly."

No wonder, the talks between Washington and Beijing have already resumed on several fronts. Last month, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi met in Vienna. The month also saw US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo meet her Chinese counterpart Wang Wentao in Washington.

It would, however, be hard to expect the Biden-Xi meeting would yield any major positivity in ties between the two powers. The approaches of the two towards each other are poles apart. Biden is never weary of saying he seeks "competition, not conflict" with China. Chinese President Xi does not seem to care. In February this year, Xi said at his armed forces' operational command centre, "[T]he entire military must... concentrate all energy on fighting a war, direct all work toward warfare and speed up to build the ability to win." Also, Chinese defence spending has now grown by 5.1 per cent to $293 billion. Beijing is aiming to integrate artificial intelligence in its command and control structures. It is investing heavily in new fleets of warships and warplanes.

Since the start of his presidency, Biden has talked to Xi four times by phone or video. This has not helped. Xi aims to upturn the existing regional order in Asia. He has warned the United States consistently against crossing China's red lines over Taiwan.

Beijing today aims to retake Taiwan over time. It has been taking every opportunity to move towards that. China has conducted a decades-long military build-up to create a military force capable of retaking the island by force. It has removed its previous reassurances to Taiwan about its future position in a united China, such as not stationing Chinese troops on the island.

The observers add it would be naïve to be optimistic about US-China relations in the near future. The current standoff over the meetings of US Foreign and Defence Secretaries Antony Blinken and Lloyd Austin with their Chinese counterparts is yet to be resolved for a meaningful dialogue between the two nations.

In February this year, Secretary Blinken scrapped a trip to China after a Chinese spy balloon flew through the US airspace. The other day, Defense Secretary Austin was in Singapore to attend the Shangri-La Dialogue. There, he sought a meeting with Chinese Defence Minister General Li Shangfu but in vain.

(Jagdish N. Singh is a senior journalist based in New Delhi. He is also Senior Distinguished Fellow at the Gatestone Institute, New York)

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of OneIndia and OneIndia does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.