OPINION: Nepal-China Ties: Need For Caution

There is little to be surprised about the possible forthcoming visit of Nepal Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal to China. It has very much been in the making. However, New Delhi needs to be very cautious about the moves of the Dahal government in Kathmandu.

The other day, ruling Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-M) vice-chair Agni Sapkota told the media that his Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal would be visiting China towards the end of July or the first week of August.

Observers say there is little to be surprised about the possible upcoming Dahal visit to China. It has very much been in the making. Dahal's party CPN-M has been in touch with the Chinese Communist Party. Recently, it has discussed with Chinese leaders about providing concessional loans under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as well as grant assistance for supporting economic development in Nepal. It wants direct flights between Kathmandu and Lhasa.

Prime Minister Dahal has had his own deep linkages with communist China. He has been an avowed Maoist. Once he would wear T-shirts with Mao Zedong's portrait and give them also to other important leaders in his party. In 2017, Dahal, as then Prime Minister of Nepal, played a crucial role in his country's entry into China's pet project BRI and the first-ever joint military exercises between the Nepal Army and the China's People's Liberation Army (PLA).

China has been very much interested in hosting Prime Minister Dahal. Last year, soon after Dahal took over as Nepal's Prime Minister, a delegation of Chinese experts arrived in Nepal to survey the possibility of a Trans-Himalayan railway corridor connecting Kathmandu to Kerung (Tibet). Now, after his recent dialogue with India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi, Dahal may go over to China and seek to cultivate the latter. China seems to be thinking Dahal has been little too friendly with India at the cost of China.

However, New Delhi needs to be very cautious about the moves of the Dahal dispensation in Kathmandu. Given the nature of the current coalition government in Kathmandu, former Prime Minister K.P. Oli is likely to be an assertive force in Nepal's foreign policy. Oli has been very close to China. Under the latter's influenc, he may give a negative direction to Dahal's India policy.

New Delhi needs to be specifically cautious on Beijing's possible plan to get the Dahal government sign an extradition treaty with it. Oli has been for it. This plan must be foiled. The treaty, if signed, would endanger the future of over 30,000 Tibetan refugees, who have been living in Nepal for the last seven decades. Given the history of post-colonial India's Tibet policy, New Delhi is under moral obligations to reach out to them.

Needless to mention, China has long been seeking to bring Nepal under its sphere of influence. Since the two nations formalized diplomatic relations on August 1, 1955, China has been highly considerate to Nepal. Nepal is the only country to maintain a Consulate General in Lhasa. It maintains Consulate General also in Hong Kong, Guangzhou and Chengdu.

In order to bring Nepal under its influence, China has taken several steps from time to time. Beijing invited Kings of Nepal Mahendra (1961), Birendra (1973, 1982, 1987, 1993, 1996, 2001) and Gyanendra (2002 and 2005) to China. After the monarchy fell in Nepal, Beijing invited the successive Nepalese Prime Ministers to China -- Dahal (2008 and 2017); Madhav Kumar Nepal (2009); Sushil Koirala (2014); and Oli (2016 and 2018).

Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai visited Nepal in 1957 and 1960. This was followed by Deng Xiaoping in 1978 (in his capacity as Vice-Premier) and several other Chinese leaders, including Premiers Zhou Ziyang (1981) and Li Peng (1989), President Jiang Zemin (1996), State Councillor Yang Jiechi ( 2013), Foreign Minister Wang Yi (2014, 2015, 2019, 2022) and President Xi Jinping (2019).

Besides, China has promoted trade with Nepal. There are six border points for trade between Nepal and China -- Kodari-Nyalam, Rasuwa-Keyrung, Yari-Purang, Olangchunggola-Riwu, Kimathanka-Riwu and Nechung-Lizi. Today, China is Nepal's second-largest trade partner, the largest FDI source and the second largest source of foreign tourists. China has also taken steps to foster better understanding between the peoples of the two nations. It provides scholarships every year to over 100 Nepalese students in China. It provides Chinese language training for 200 tourism entrepreneurs.

In the process, China's influence has already begun to increase in Nepal. The peoples of the two nations are coming closer to each other. In Nepal, its government has waived visa fees for the Chinese nationals for up to 90 days in a year. It has made the Chinese Yuan convertible for tourists and business persons.

(Jagdish N. Singh is a senior journalist based in New Delhi. He is also Senior Distinguished Fellow at the Gatestone Institute, New York)

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