OPINION: How Did Congress Win Karnataka?

Undoubtedly, Congress victory in the recent elections to Karnataka Assembly is decisive. But the BJP's defeat is ambiguous, there was no erosion in its vote share. The party lost the Government, without ceding any part of its popular base to the victor.

The Congress got 42.88 percent of popular vote, the highest any party has obtained in an assembly election since 1989. In 2018 assembly poll, the Congress's vote share was 38.14 per cent and that of BJP 36.35 per cent. An almost five percent upswing in Congress favour during this assembly elections helped it to garner 55 additional seats.

Most of the analysts have attributed BJP's defeat to its corrupt, communal and hegemonic image. According to this narrative, the '40 percent commission sarkara' aphorism stuck to the vanquished Government. The Congress, in contrast, was viewed as a bulwark against these corrosive traits.

In addition, the Congress had tempted the voters with freebies. These analysts have got it all wrong. The fact is none of these promised freebies and allegations could corrode BJP support base. The BJP too had its matching free goodies basket. If the BJP leaders had a venal image, so did the Congress leadership.

In 2014, a Lokayukta complaint was lodged against Mallikarjun Kharge alleging that he owned assets worth Rs 50,000 crore, disproportionate to his known sources of income. On 20 April, 2023, the Karnataka High Court dismissed an appeal D.K. Shivakumar against the handling of a case of disproportionate assets by CBI. As many as 50 cases are still pending in the Lokayukta against former Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah.

How did the Congress get the incremental vote share and a hefty increase in the number of seats it got? The winner, poached on Janta Dal (Secular), whose vote share collapsed to 13.3 percent from 18.3 percent. The bulk of the votes, JD(S) lost to Congress were of Muslims. And this massive vote shift had nothing to do either with the policies of JD(S) or alleged BJP corruption.

Nehru-Gandhi scion Rahul Gandhi, however, gave an archetypal Marxist twist to the verdict. He termed it as a battle "between the strength of crony capitalists and that of the poor masses." He also coined a new divisive election slogan, 'Jitni abaadi, utna haq' (the rights of any group are proportionate to its population share), a mischievous move to divide Hindus in various sub-castes.

Economic issues didn't figure in the campaign. Karnataka is emergence as the third largest state economy in the country was hardly a part of electoral discourse. Between 2017-18 and 2022-2023 the state registered a record growth rate of 68 per cent. The electoral narrative, set by the Congress, was focused entirely on communal issues.

The Congress also pandered to Karnataka sub-nationalism, fanning fissiparous tendencies. Congress's official twitter handle described the election as a battle for Karnataka's "sovereignty". It also tried to exploit parochial sentiments- pitting South against North India. Any support to BJP was equated with acquiescence to North Indian domination.

The Congress manifesto promised to ban organisations such as Popular Front of India (PFI) and Bajrang Dal. It was a ploy to communalise polls. The PFI is already banned by the Union government, and the party's invocation of Bajrang Dal was to further extend the Congress long time narrative of 'Hindu terror'.

Opponents of BJP use familiar cliches and tropes to demonise BJP. Such exercises have a template. The BJP is accused of raising contentious identity issues, pushing a majoritarian agenda and ignoring development and economic questions. However, in real, political parties, claiming to be 'secular', appeal to the most fundamentalist instincts of minorities, particularly Muslims, create a fear psychosis, communalise the eco-system, and garner their votes.

In such a scenario, many voters don't judge political parties on the basis of their performance or policies. It's the fear and distrust which drives them while exercising their electoral choices.

The arena of competitive politics reverberates with political untouchability, and baseless suspicion. The minds get closed and ears hear things which were never said. The eco-system resonates with social tensions, prejudices and building a collective angst.

In 2022, the Basavaraj Bommai-led BJP government had banned hijab in pre-university colleges across the state, when Islamic fundamentalists made a determined effort to push Muslim girls back to medieval times. The same year, the BJP government passed laws against religious conversions.

The BJP government's decision to scrap four percent reservation for Muslims under the Other Backward Classes category was painted as another onslaught on Muslims. The Constitution doesn't allow reservation along religious lines. The Congress has promised to restore reservations. All these moves galvanised the Muslim voters against BJP.

Apart from these irritants, some developments outside Karnataka - restoration of peace and normalcy in Kashmir valley following the abrogation of Articles 35 A & 370, construction of Ram temple in Ayodhya and abolition of triple Talaq - further alienated fundamentalist sections of Muslims from the BJP

Muslim voters, who moved away from JD(S) to Congress, did so, with the sole intention of defeating BJP. They weren't influenced either by the corruption or inefficiency of the incumbent Government, or promised freebies by the Congress.

The BJP slipped on two counts. It failed to set the narrative. It didn't focus on its development record. If it's performance during its four years in office, been better, it would have helped it to add new voters to its kitty. Some of the BJP apologists have tried to paint the Karnataka loss as a routine one. Anti-incumbency is not an iron law of political nature. Several government's, including those led by the BJP, have returned to power in recent times.

The BJP signature tune, 'Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas, Sabka Vishwas', is in line with the spirit of the Constitution, and reflects Indian ethos of "...Om Sarve Bhavantu Sukhinah, Sarve Santu Niramaya..." (May everyone be happy), but has hardly any bearing on electoral outcome.

(Mr. Balbir Punj is a Former Member of Parliament and a Columnist. He can be reached at: [email protected])

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of OneIndia and OneIndia does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.