OPINION: Delay In J&K Elections Giving Rise To Speculations

The elections in Union territory of Jammu and Kashmir have become a questionable subject in political circles as well as in public. Whether elections will be held or not has given rise to speculations and impatience. Intriguingly, the regional political parties have started working on permutation and combination arrangements to gain as much political strength as possible.

Interestingly, those regional political parties till yesterday who were adamant on boycott elections have now been persistently demanding early elections in the UT. Five years have passed since the Jammu and Kashmir State was granted Union territory status on August 5, 2019. In a conference on ''Another look at Articles 35a and 370: Statehood for and elections in J&K" organised by Centre for Peace and Progress, on 17th June in Delhi, the participants from Jammu and Kashmir and other political leaders and intellectuals from Delhi unanimously highlighted the early elections there in the interest of healthy democracy. The local unit of BJP too has appealed to the Election Commission to announce dates for the polls there.

Meanwhile, the main regional political party National Conference (NC) of Dr Farooq Abdullah has its own strength to fight in all the Assembly segments. Mehbooba Mufti's People's Democratic Party (PDP) has confined its political activities only to the South of Kashmir. The Apni Party of rebel of PDP leader Altaf Bukahari has been trying hard to throw its political weight around with the support of the Centre.

Testing the soil for holding Assembly elections, the Jammu and Kashmir administration has appointed a nodal officer for the conduct of elections to urban local bodies, the first step towards holding the polls later this year. Anil Koul, the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Department, has been appointed as nodal officer. The polls are likely to take place in September with the election schedule expected to be announced in August this year.

The incumbent municipal corporations and other municipalities' terms are also set to end in October-November. The previous local bodies' elections were held in October 2018 under Governor's Rule with the NC and PDP boycotting the exercise. After the revocation of Article 370, DDC, BDC and Panchayat elections have taken place in Jammu and Kashmir, where 280 DDCs have been elected.

Giving rise to various political speculations, the watchers on Kashmir view that the Lok Sabha election in 2024 will be the second soil test for BJP in hustings, before putting Jammu and Kashmir to Assembly polls. Interestingly, NC has changed in the last five years. Sources close to NC also acknowledge that the party, which didn't formally contest Urban Local Body polls last time, is now ready to contest Assembly elections without restoration of statehood. Amid the ongoing political propositions, People Conference of Sajjad Lone, the political rival of NC, has been claiming that the "grand old party (NC) was softening its posture" towards the BJP.

It is too early to predict whether NC will like to form a government in alliance with the BJP or not. But the PAGD, headed by Abdullah, in consultation with like-minded political parties in Jammu and Kashmir, has been working on seat adjustment for Lok Sabha elections under the Unified Political Front against BJP. According to their election strategy, out of five Lok Sabha seats, two will be left for Congress in Jammu and two seats in Srinagar and Baramulla NC will contest whereas PDP of Mehbooba Mufti in Anantnag.

On top of it, conjectures have been built up that the Centre has been planning to annex Doda division and areas from Poonch-Rajouri of Kashmir valley with the absolute status of Union territory and connecting Jammu, predominantly by Hindus to Punjab. There is a big "if" on the further division of Jammu and Kashmir, and whether that will solve the Kashmir problem or aggravate, observe political scientists.

(R C Ganjoo is a senior journalist and columnist having more than 30 years experience of covering issues concerning national security, particularly Kashmir. He has worked with several prominent media groups and his articles have been published in many national and international publications.)

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