OPINION: Clouds Of Uncertainty Looms Over Pakistan Elections

Pakistan is expected to hold elections for its National Assembly by October 14, 2023. On July 20, Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) officials announced that if the national and provincial assemblies in Sindh and Balochistan are dissolved after completing their five-year tenure on August 12, general elections could be held no later than October 11. According to Pakistan's constitution, an elected assembly is mandated to serve for five years. After its dissolution on time, a caretaker set-up is put in place which holds the elections within 60 days.

A political analyst in Pakistan, however, believes the election dates will be decided by Pakistan's powerful military, which has been ruling the country for the past three decades, directly or indirectly. Army top brass doesn't seem interested in holding elections in 2023 and wants to postpone it to 2024 on flimsy grounds.

Imran Khan's party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) dominated the assemblies in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (PK) provinces but he dissolved these in January 2023, to play his political gambit to force early elections. But his game plan failed. Despite a Supreme Court order in April 2023, no elections were held in the two provinces. And there is no clarity on when Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will order the dissolution of the national assembly.

PDM coalition government headed by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is hell-bent on destroying Imran Khan politically. Therefore he has been charged with dozens of cases, including corruption and terrorism, thereby putting his political survival under a question mark. Imran Khan's arrest on May 9 was an inglorious dent in Pakistan's so-called democratic history. After his removal from office in 2022 following a parliamentary vote of no confidence, Imran Khan survived an assassination attempt, but continued to mobilize strong political support across the country. His emerging popular image further unnerved the ruling alliance politically.

Imran Khan and his party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), allege that these inquiries against them are politically motivated. The same statements were earlier made by the members of the parties currently sitting in government, including the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP). It is not to be forgotten that Pakistan's political scene has generally been characterized by one rule. Its army. That will exist, carry, and typically persist no matter the consequences. Imran Khan was the product of the army in 2018 and was removed from office in 2022 after he lost army backing.

The current coalition government led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of the PML-N, continues to wriggle out of the political and financial crisis. In the joint struggle of the government while in negotiations with the International Monetary Fund or in political permutations combinations, Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir's proposals are given top priority.

The hectic efforts are being undertaken by the Army and the PDM coalition government to stall an electoral test that could disprove Khan's popularity. But the indication is rife that Khan would likely come out on top in an election. Pakistan Army is more focused on its authority and strategy, to achieve its desired results even through the elections.

It is believed that the current military dominated structure would not allow free and fair elections. But Pakistan will experience a frustrating moment in elections. Because the mass protests have reflected a lack of trust in the government and the Army. This trust gap did not occur overnight but accumulated over time, as the establishment reached into its toxic, anti-democratic toolbox and repeatedly undermined democratic processes and civilian institutions. The Pakistan army too will have to eat a humble pie due to inner bickering in its rank and files.

(R C Ganjoo is a senior journalist and columnist having more than 30 years experience of covering issues concerning national security, particularly Kashmir. He has worked with several prominent media groups and his articles have been published in many national and international publications.)

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