Tamil Nadu Election Prediction: AIADMK Set to Emerge as Winner, Says Pre-Poll Survey

Will the AIADMK defeat the DMK to return to power in Tamil Nadu? Yes, according to the latest CNN News18-Vote Tracker survey, conducted between March 23 and April 6.

As per the survey, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam is ahead of the DMK and expected to emerge victorious in the April 23 poll.

According to the predictions, the race for the Chief Minister's post remains tightly contested between incumbent MK Stalin and AIADMK leader Edappadi K. Palaniswami, with both leaders securing 39% preference among respondents. Actor-turned-politician Vijay trails at 14%, while others account for 5%.

However, on key indicators beyond leadership preference, AIADMK appears to hold an edge. When respondents were asked which party's manifesto stands out, AIADMK led with 39%, ahead of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam at 34%. The Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam secured 12%, while 11% said none and 4% remained undecided.

On the critical question of who is likely to form the next government, 42% of respondents backed AIADMK to win, compared to 36% who believed DMK would return to power. About 11% expected a new party or alliance to emerge victorious, while 6% predicted a hung assembly. Five percent of respondents were undecided.

Vote share projections further underline AIADMK's advantage, placing the party at 41%, marginally ahead of DMK at 39%. TVK is projected to secure 12% of the vote, with other parties accounting for the remaining 8%.

In terms of seat projections, the survey forecasts a clear lead for AIADMK, estimating 130-140 seats in the 234-member Assembly. DMK is projected to win between 90 and 100 seats, while TVK is expected to secure 2-6 seats.

Political analysts note that while the leadership contest remains evenly balanced, AIADMK's advantage in manifesto perception, vote share, and seat projections indicates a broader consolidation of support. The findings suggest that voter preference may be tilting toward AIADMK as the election approaches.

Who do you wish to see as next Tamil Nadu CM?

MK Stalin: 39%
EPS: 39%
Vijay: 14%
Others: 5 %

Which Party's manifesto stands out?

DMK: 34%
ADMK: 39%
TVK: 12%
None: 11%
Undecided: 4%

Will DMK break trend and return to power?

Yes: 36%
ADMK will win: 42%
New party/alliance: 11%
Hung assembly: 6%
Undecided: 5%

Tamil Nadu vote share

DMK: 39%
AIADMK: 41%
TVK: 12%
Other: 8%

Seats prediction:

DMK: 90-100
ADMK: 130-140
TVK: 2-6

The survey results, based on responses collected over a two-week period, offer an early snapshot of voter sentiment in Tamil Nadu, with AIADMK emerging as the frontrunner in multiple key metrics.